Match details. Serie D, Group E, Group E - 7. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. US Follonica Gavorrano are 1st on 14 points after 6 games, level on points with Prato. ASD Terranuova Traiana are 10th on 8 points after 6 games, level on points with Ternana, level on points with San Donato Tavarnelle. A win would take them above Ternana.
Form. US Follonica Gavorrano have won four, drawn two and lost none of their last six, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W D. ASD Terranuova Traiana have won two, drawn two and lost two of their last six, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W D W.
The numbers. US Follonica Gavorrano score 1.5 and concede 0.5 a game over their last six, with three clean sheets. ASD Terranuova Traiana score 1.8 and concede 1.5 a game over their last six, with no clean sheets.
Head to head. In the last six meetings US Follonica Gavorrano have won one, drawn three and lost two. Two of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, two were drawn and ASD Terranuova Traiana won two. The last time they met, on 25 Jan 2026, it finished US Follonica Gavorrano 0-1 ASD Terranuova Traiana.
Where it pulls both ways. US Follonica Gavorrano are the form side, but the meetings favour ASD Terranuova Traiana: in the last six meetings, US Follonica Gavorrano won one, ASD Terranuova Traiana won two and three were drawn.
The read. A draw. A tight game. Little separates them, and both sides draw often. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 40%. Four of the last six meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: US Follonica Gavorrano or Under 2.5 Goals (the call is a draw); US Follonica Gavorrano or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); US Follonica Gavorrano or Both Teams Score (the call is a draw). Predicted score: US Follonica Gavorrano 1-1 ASD Terranuova Traiana (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).