Match details. Serie D, Group E, Group E - 7. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time. It is played at Porta Elisa, Lucca.
What's at stake. Lucchese Calcio are 3rd on 13 points after 6 games, 1 point behind Prato, 1 point clear of Tau Altopascio. A win would take them above Prato. Ternana Calcio are 9th on 8 points after 6 games, 2 points behind Robur Siena, level on points with Terranuova Traiana. A win would take them above Robur Siena.
Form. Lucchese Calcio have won four, drawn one and lost one of their last six, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D W L. Ternana Calcio have won two, drawn two and lost two of their last six, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W L D.
The numbers. Lucchese Calcio score 2.7 and concede 1.8 a game over their last six, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Lucchese Calcio average 12.4 shots (5.4 on target), 7.4 corners and 2.6 cards a game. Ternana Calcio score 1.5 and concede 0.8 a game over their last six, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Ternana Calcio average 12.2 shots (2.5 on target), 3.8 corners and 1.5 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last two meetings Lucchese Calcio have won one, drawn none and lost one. Two of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 30 Mar 2025, it finished Lucchese Calcio 4-1 Ternana Calcio.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 67%.
The case against. Ternana Calcio's record still gives them 25% to win.
The read. Lucchese Calcio to win. Lucchese Calcio are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Lucchese Calcio.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Lucchese Calcio 1-0 Ternana Calcio (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).