ALACL

14:00Sun 11 Oct

PAV

PAV

AC Leon vs Pavonese

CLASS E

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. Serie D, Group B, Group B - 7. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. AC Leon are 6th on 9 points after 6 games, level on points with Virtus Ciserano Bergamo, level on points with Caldiero Terme. A win would take them above Virtus Ciserano Bergamo. Pavonese are 13th on 7 points after 5 games, level on points with Villa Valle, 2 points clear of Scanzorosciate. A win would take them above Villa Valle.

Form. AC Leon have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L D D. Pavonese have won two, drawn two and lost two of their last six, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D L L.

The numbers. AC Leon score 1.2 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. AC Leon average 9.0 shots (3.4 on target), 5.6 corners and 2.2 cards a game. Pavonese score 0.8 and concede one a game over their last six, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Pavonese average 8.0 corners and 1.0 cards a game.

The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 35%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: AC Leon or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Pavonese or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: AC Leon 1-1 Pavonese (13% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ACL 8 of 8 (100%) · PAV 5 of 5 (100%)95.4%

AC Leon: under 5.5 goals in 8 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Pavonese: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · AC Leon: only games against sides at Pavonese's level · Pavonese: only games against sides at AC Leon's level

Under 4.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ACL 8 of 8 (100%) · PAV 4 of 5 (80%)88.3%

AC Leon: under 4.5 goals in 8 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Pavonese: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · AC Leon: only games against sides at Pavonese's level · Pavonese: only games against sides at AC Leon's level

Under 3.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ACL 6 of 8 (75%) · PAV 4 of 5 (80%)74.4%

AC Leon: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Pavonese: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 78% · AC Leon: only games against sides at Pavonese's level · Pavonese: only games against sides at AC Leon's level

Under 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.72

ACL 4 of 8 (50%) · PAV 4 of 5 (80%)52.8%

AC Leon: under 2.5 goals in 4 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Pavonese: under 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 65% · AC Leon: only games against sides at Pavonese's level · Pavonese: only games against sides at AC Leon's level

AC LEON GOALS

AC Leon Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ACL 6 of 8 (75%) · PAV 4 of 5 (80%)77.3%

AC Leon scored in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Pavonese conceded in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 78% · AC Leon: only games against sides at Pavonese's level · Pavonese: only games against sides at AC Leon's level

Left off the list: AC Leon or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Pavonese or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 13.1%

AC Leon goals →

Pavonese goals ↓

0-08%

1-011%

2-08%

3-04%

4-02%

5-00.5%

0-18%

1-113%

2-19%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.5%

0-25%

1-27%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.9%

5-20.3%

0-32%

1-32%

2-32%

3-30.9%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-40.4%

1-40.6%

2-40.5%

3-40.2%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.1%

2-50.1%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

AC LEONLLDWDDDLWW1.30 PPG

PAVONESEDLLDWW1.33 PPG

THE NUMBERS

AC LEON HOMExPAVONESE AWAY

1.20SCORED A GAME0.831.30CONCEDED A GAME1.0020%CLEAN SHEETS33%0%FAILED TO SCORE40%5.60CORNERS A GAME8.002.20CARDS A GAME1.00

THE BANK

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

81%

OKAY · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

38%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

92%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

AC LEON OR DRAW

61%

NO · 80/85

PAVONESE OR DRAW

61%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (6 and 4 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

TRENDS

AC Leon have scored in 80% of their games.

Pavonese have scored in 50% of their games.

AC Leon kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

Pavonese kept a clean sheet in 33% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards