Match details. Campionato Sammarinese, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Cosmos Serravalle are 8th on 7 points after 4 games, level on points with Fiorentino, 1 point clear of Domagnano. A win would take them above Fiorentino. AC Juvenes/Dogana are 10th on 3 points after 4 games, 3 points behind Domagnano, level on points with Cailungo. A win would take them level on points with Domagnano.
Form. Cosmos Serravalle have won three, drawn one and lost two of their last six league games, 1.7 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W W L D W. AC Juvenes/Dogana have won two, drawn one and lost three of their last six league games, 1.2 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L L L W W.
The numbers. Cosmos Serravalle score two and concede 1.2 a game over their last six, with two clean sheets. Cosmos Serravalle average 7.0 shots (2.0 on target), 3.0 corners and 3.5 cards a game. AC Juvenes/Dogana score 1.8 and concede 1.3 a game over their last six, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. AC Juvenes/Dogana average 11.0 shots (4.4 on target), 4.2 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Cosmos Serravalle have won five, drawn two and lost three. Five of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Cosmos Serravalle won one, one was drawn and AC Juvenes/Dogana won two. The last time they met, on 21 Jan 2026, it finished Cosmos Serravalle 0-1 AC Juvenes/Dogana.
The read. Cosmos Serravalle to win. Their goals for and against make Cosmos Serravalle the likelier winners; Cosmos Serravalle are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Cosmos Serravalle.
The bets. Best bet: Cosmos Serravalle or Draw at 1.28, rated 77% (Cosmos Serravalle unbeaten in 5 of 5 at home; AC Juvenes/Dogana failed to win 7 of 9). Predicted score: Cosmos Serravalle 1-0 AC Juvenes/Dogana (11% chance).
The agreed story. Cosmos Serravalle or the draw, goals in between.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).