Match details. Torneo Federal A. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time.
Form. Deportivo Rincon have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D D W. Kimberley de Mar Del Plata have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D W L L.
The numbers. Deportivo Rincon score 1.4 and concede 0.2 a game in their last five at home, with four clean sheets. Deportivo Rincon average 7.5 shots (3.8 on target), 3.2 corners and 1.8 cards a game. Kimberley de Mar Del Plata score 1.2 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Kimberley de Mar Del Plata average 9.5 shots (2.1 on target), 8.4 corners and 2.2 cards a game.
The case against. Kimberley de Mar Del Plata's record still gives them 23% to win.
The read. Deportivo Rincon to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Deportivo Rincon the likelier winners; Deportivo Rincon are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Deportivo Rincon. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 37%.
The bets. Best bet: Deportivo Rincon or Draw at 1.23, 73% on the records (Deportivo Rincon unbeaten in 5 of 5 at home; Kimberley de Mar Del Plata failed to win 3 of 5 away). The safer one: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.14 (76%). Backup: 1st Half - GG/NG: No at 1.10. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Deportivo Rincon or draw and under 3.5 goals (the signs point different ways); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Under 0.5 first-half goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Deportivo Rincon 1-0 Kimberley de Mar Del Plata (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).