Match details. Liga de Expansion MX, Apertura - 10. Kick-off is Wed 14 Oct, 00:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Akron, Zapopan.
What's at stake. CD Tapatio are 11th on 14 points after 11 games, 1 point behind Tlaxcala, 1 point clear of Dorados. A win would take them above Tlaxcala. Tepatitlan FC are 16th on 7 points after 11 games, 4 points behind Cruz Azul Hidalgo.
Form. CD Tapatio have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W L L. Tepatitlan FC have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L L L.
The numbers. CD Tapatio score 2.4 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. CD Tapatio average 3.3 corners and 2.4 cards a game. Tepatitlan FC score 0.9 and concede 2.9 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and five games without a goal. Tepatitlan FC average 4.4 corners and 3.2 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings CD Tapatio have won two, drawn three and lost five. Four of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, one was drawn and Tepatitlan FC won three. The last time they met, on 24 Jan 2026, it finished CD Tapatio 0-2 Tepatitlan FC.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make CD Tapatio the likelier winners, but both teams' records favour CD Tapatio; the meetings favour Tepatitlan FC. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 59%; six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The read. No side to back. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Leave: CD Tapatio or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); Tepatitlan FC or Over 2.5 Goals (no result call); Tepatitlan FC or Over 1.5 Goals (no result call). Predicted score: CD Tapatio 1-1 Tepatitlan FC (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).