Match details. Serie D, Group D, Group D - 7. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Lentigione Calcio are 4th on 13 points after 6 games, level on points with Pro Patria, 1 point clear of Castellanzese. A win would take them above Pro Patria. US Citta Di Pontedera are 18th on 0 points after 5 games, 3 points behind Oltrepò. A win would take them level on points with Oltrepò.
Form. Lentigione Calcio have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D L W. US Citta Di Pontedera have won none, drawn one and lost nine of their last ten, 0.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L.
The numbers. Lentigione Calcio score one and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Lentigione Calcio average 9.7 shots (5.3 on target), 6.0 corners and 1.7 cards a game. US Citta Di Pontedera score 0.6 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. US Citta Di Pontedera average 9.4 shots (2.6 on target), 4.6 corners and 1.9 cards a game.
The read. Lentigione Calcio to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Lentigione Calcio the likelier winners; Lentigione Calcio are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Lentigione Calcio. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 75%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Lentigione Calcio or Under 2.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Lentigione Calcio 2-1 US Citta Di Pontedera (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).