Supreme FC vs South China FC
Match details. 1. Division. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 08:30 Lagos time.
Form. Supreme FC have won seven, drawn none and lost three of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L W L. South China FC have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D L L.
The numbers. Supreme FC score 2.9 and concede two a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Supreme FC average 12.8 shots (5.7 on target), 6.3 corners and 1.8 cards a game. South China FC score 1.8 and concede 1.2 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet. South China FC average 13.9 shots (4.4 on target), 6.3 corners and 2.4 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 22% against the records' 51%.
The read. No firm call: Supreme FC are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Supreme FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Supreme FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 77%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 2.5 Goals at 1.36, 77% on the records (Supreme FC: over 2.5 goals in 9 of 10; South China FC: over 2.5 goals in 4 of 6 away). The safer one: Supreme FC or South China FC at 1.18 (93%). Leave: South China FC or Over 2.5 Goals (the call backs Supreme FC); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Supreme FC 2-1 South China FC (7% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).