Match details. National League. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 00:00 Lagos time.
Form. Auckland FC Reserves have won four, drawn none and lost six of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L W W. Auckland United FC have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W L.
The numbers. Auckland FC Reserves score two and concede 1.9 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Auckland United FC score 2.2 and concede 1.8 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets.
The case against. Auckland FC Reserves's record still gives them 42% to win.
The read. Auckland United FC to win. An open game. Auckland United FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Auckland United FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 81%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 2.5 Goals at 1.31, 81% on the records (Auckland FC Reserves: over 2.5 goals in 8 of 10; Auckland United FC: over 2.5 goals in 5 of 6 away). Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Auckland FC Reserves 1-2 Auckland United FC (7% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).