Rio Ave FC vs Nacional da Madeira
Match details. Liga Portugal, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 15:30 Lagos time. It is played at Estádio dos Arcos, Condi Town. The referee is Carlos Macedo.
What's at stake. Rio Ave FC are 16th on 4 points after 7 games, level on points with Nacional, level on points with Casa Pia. A win would take them above Nacional. Nacional da Madeira are 15th on 4 points after 7 games, 1 point behind Vitória SC, level on points with Rio Ave. A win would take them above Vitória SC.
Form. Rio Ave FC have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L L W. Nacional da Madeira have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L.
The numbers. Rio Ave FC score 0.8 and concede 2.6 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Rio Ave FC average 7.2 shots (2.5 on target), 3.6 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 43% of the ball. Nacional da Madeira score one and concede 1.9 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and four games without a goal. Nacional da Madeira average 9.8 shots (3.3 on target), 4.3 corners and 2.3 cards a game, with 50% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Rio Ave FC have won four, drawn three and lost two. Four of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Rio Ave FC won one, two were drawn and Nacional da Madeira won one. The last time they met, on 25 Jan 2026, it finished Rio Ave FC 0-4 Nacional da Madeira: Rio Ave FC had 11 shots to 14, 53% of the ball, three yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Rio Ave FC the likelier winners, but Nacional da Madeira are the stronger side on form and the table. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 51%; five of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The read. No side to back. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: Rio Ave FC 1-1 Nacional da Madeira (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).