Match details. Stars League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 18:30 Lagos time.
What's at stake. AL Karma are 1st on 20 points after 8 games, 2 points clear of Newroz. AL Karkh are 17th on 7 points after 8 games, 1 point behind Mosul, level on points with Al Kahrabaa. A win would take them above Mosul.
Form. AL Karma have won eight, drawn two and lost none of their last ten, 2.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W. AL Karkh have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L D.
The numbers. AL Karma score 1.7 and concede 0.4 a game in their last seven at home, with four clean sheets. AL Karma average 14.5 shots (5.1 on target), 5.2 corners and 3.2 cards a game. AL Karkh score 0.6 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. AL Karkh average 9.2 shots (4.1 on target), 2.8 corners and 1.6 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last four meetings AL Karma have won one, drawn two and lost one. None of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 22 Apr 2026, it finished AL Karma 0-0 AL Karkh.
The read. AL Karma to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make AL Karma the likelier winners; AL Karma are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour AL Karma. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 31%. Four of the last four meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: AL Karma (Draw No Bet) at 1.11, 72% on the records (AL Karma won 6 of 6 at home (draws left out); AL Karkh lost 6 of 8 (draws left out)). Leave: Under 3.5 Goals (AL Karma are a clear winner, no Unders); AL Karma or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); AL Karma 1UP (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: AL Karma 1-0 AL Karkh (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).