Match details. Torneo Federal A. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time.
Form. Sportivo Las Parejas have won three, drawn five and lost two of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L D. CAS Defensores de Belgrano have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W W L.
The numbers. Sportivo Las Parejas score 0.8 and concede none a game in their last five at home, with five clean sheets and three games without a goal. Sportivo Las Parejas average 9.7 shots (4.3 on target), 5.9 corners and 1.7 cards a game. CAS Defensores de Belgrano score 0.8 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. CAS Defensores de Belgrano average 11.2 shots (3.1 on target), 4.1 corners and 2.4 cards a game.
The case against. CAS Defensores de Belgrano's record still gives them 23% to win.
The read. Sportivo Las Parejas to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Sportivo Las Parejas the likelier winners; Sportivo Las Parejas are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Sportivo Las Parejas. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 12%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.19, 76% on the records (Sportivo Las Parejas: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; CAS Defensores de Belgrano: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Backup: Sportivo Las Parejas or Under 2.5 Goals at 1.09. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: CAS Defensores de Belgrano or Under 2.5 Goals (the call backs Sportivo Las Parejas); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Under 1.5 first-half goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Sportivo Las Parejas 1-0 CAS Defensores de Belgrano (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).