Match details. 1. MFL, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. FK Skopje are 10th on 3 points after 8 games, 1 point behind Bashkimi Kumanovo. A win would take them above Bashkimi Kumanovo. FK Vardar Skopje are 4th on 14 points after 8 games, 2 points behind Tikveš, 1 point clear of Shkëndija Haraçinë. A win would take them above Tikveš.
Form. FK Skopje have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L D D. FK Vardar Skopje have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W D.
The numbers. FK Skopje score 0.9 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and five games without a goal. FK Skopje average 7.2 shots (3.9 on target), 2.1 corners and 3.0 cards a game. FK Vardar Skopje score 2.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. FK Vardar Skopje average 12.3 shots (4.2 on target), 4.7 corners and 1.8 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last four meetings FK Skopje have won one, drawn two and lost one. One of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 2 May 2018, it finished FK Skopje 1-0 FK Vardar Skopje.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 75% against the records' 49%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 29%; three of the last four meetings went under 2.5.
The read. No firm call: FK Vardar Skopje are the better side, but not at this price. Their goals for and against make FK Vardar Skopje the likelier winners; FK Vardar Skopje are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour FK Vardar Skopje.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (FK Vardar Skopje are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (FK Vardar Skopje are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: FK Skopje 1-1 FK Vardar Skopje (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).