AEK Athens vs OFI Crete
Match details. Super League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 17:30 Lagos time. It is played at Allwyn Arena, Nea Filadelfeia. The referee is Georgios Kokkinos.
What's at stake. AEK Athens are 3rd on 11 points after 5 games, 1 point behind PAOK, 1 point clear of OFI. A win would take them above PAOK. OFI Crete are 4th on 10 points after 5 games, 1 point behind AEK Athens FC, level on points with Olympiakos Piraeus. A win would take them above AEK Athens FC.
Form. AEK Athens have won seven, drawn three and lost none of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D W W. OFI Crete have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W W.
The numbers. AEK Athens score 4.4 and concede 0.2 a game in their last five at home, with four clean sheets. AEK Athens average 14.1 shots (5.4 on target), 4.0 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 61% of the ball. OFI Crete score 1.8 and concede 0.4 a game over their last ten, with eight clean sheets. OFI Crete average 8.5 shots (3.7 on target), 3.4 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 53% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings AEK Athens have won seven, drawn none and lost two. Five of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, AEK Athens won three and OFI Crete won one. The last time they met, on 14 Jan 2026, it finished AEK Athens 0-1 OFI Crete.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 81% against the records' 51%.
The read. No firm call: AEK Athens are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make AEK Athens the likelier winners; AEK Athens are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour AEK Athens; the meetings favour AEK Athens. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Five of the last nine meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.16, 76% on the records (AEK Athens: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5; OFI Crete: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5). Leave: Under 3.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); OFI Crete Under 1.5 goals (OFI Crete's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: AEK Athens 2-1 OFI Crete (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).