Sao Paulo FC SP vs CR Vasco da Gama RJ
Match details. Brasileiro Serie A, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 01:00 Lagos time. It is played at Morumbi, Sao Paulo. The referee is Fernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Filho.
What's at stake. Sao Paulo FC SP are 10th on 39 points after 30 games, 1 point behind RB Bragantino, level on points with Coritiba. A win would take them above RB Bragantino. CR Vasco da Gama RJ are 14th on 35 points after 29 games, 1 point behind Botafogo, 2 points clear of Mirassol. A win would take them above Botafogo.
Team news. Sao Paulo FC SP are without N. Bosshardt (inactive), Buta (knee injury), Djhordney (yellow cards), D. Duarte (knee injury), Ferreira (injury), Luciano (inactive). CR Vasco da Gama RJ are without Mateus Carvalho (knee injury), F. Colidio (injury), C. Cuesta (inactive), Mateus Carvalho (knee injury), F. Colidio (injury), C. Cuesta (inactive).
Form. Sao Paulo FC SP have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L W D. CR Vasco da Gama RJ have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W W.
The numbers. Sao Paulo FC SP score 1.5 and concede 0.8 a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets. Sao Paulo FC SP average 16.9 shots (4.8 on target), 6.9 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 52% of the ball. CR Vasco da Gama RJ score 1.2 and concede 0.5 a game in their last six away, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. CR Vasco da Gama RJ average 18.6 shots (6.1 on target), 6.0 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 54% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Sao Paulo FC SP have won five, drawn two and lost three. Six of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, Sao Paulo FC SP won two and CR Vasco da Gama RJ won two. The last time they met, on 18 Apr 2026, it finished Sao Paulo FC SP 1-2 CR Vasco da Gama RJ: Sao Paulo FC SP had 10 shots to 20, 38% of the ball, three yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 61%; six of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The case against. CR Vasco da Gama RJ's record still gives them 49% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The read. Sao Paulo FC SP or the draw. A draw is live. An open game. CR Vasco da Gama RJ are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CR Vasco da Gama RJ. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 61%. Six of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.33, 73% on the records (Sao Paulo FC SP: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; CR Vasco da Gama RJ: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 6). Backup: Under 2.5 first-half goals at 1.09. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Sao Paulo FC SP or Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Sao Paulo FC SP 2-1 CR Vasco da Gama RJ (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).