One Knoxville SC vs Spokane Velocity FC
Match details. USL League One, Group Stage. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Regal Stadium.
What's at stake. One Knoxville SC are 5th on 51 points after 30 games, 1 point behind Boise, 4 points clear of Spokane Velocity. A win would take them above Boise. Spokane Velocity FC are 6th on 47 points after 27 games, 4 points behind One Knoxville, 1 point clear of Chattanooga Red Wolves.
Form. One Knoxville SC have won three, drawn five and lost two of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D L W. In this competition One Knoxville SC have gone W L D L W D. Spokane Velocity FC have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W D L. In this competition Spokane Velocity FC have gone D W W D L D.
The numbers. One Knoxville SC score 1.2 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. One Knoxville SC average 5.4 corners and 2.2 cards a game. Spokane Velocity FC score 1.4 and concede one a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Spokane Velocity FC average 4.2 corners and 1.9 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last six meetings One Knoxville SC have won three, drawn three and lost none. Two of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, One Knoxville SC won three and one was drawn. The last time they met, on 21 Jun 2026, it finished One Knoxville SC 4-0 Spokane Velocity FC.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: Spokane Velocity FC are the stronger side on form and the table, but the meetings favour One Knoxville SC.
The case against. Spokane Velocity FC's record still gives them 24% to win.
The read. One Knoxville SC or the draw. A tight game. Spokane Velocity FC are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour One Knoxville SC. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 45%. Four of the last six meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Spokane Velocity FC Over 0.5 goals (One Knoxville SC's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: One Knoxville SC 1-1 Spokane Velocity FC (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).