Qizilqum Zarafshon vs FK Termez Surkhon
Match details. Superliga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time. It is played at Yoshlar Sport Majmuasi, Navoiy. The referee is S. Nasibullayev.
What's at stake. Qizilqum Zarafshon are 10th on 29 points after 22 games, 1 point behind Dinamo Samarqand, 1 point clear of Sogdiana. A win would take them above Dinamo Samarqand. FK Termez Surkhon are 12th on 26 points after 22 games, 2 points behind Sogdiana, 3 points clear of Kokand-1912. A win would take them above Sogdiana.
Form. Qizilqum Zarafshon have won four, drawn one and lost four of their last nine, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W L. In this competition Qizilqum Zarafshon have gone W L W W L W. FK Termez Surkhon have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W D D. In this competition FK Termez Surkhon have gone W L W D D L.
The numbers. Qizilqum Zarafshon score 1.2 and concede 1.4 a game over their last nine, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Qizilqum Zarafshon average 2.6 corners and 1.8 cards a game. FK Termez Surkhon score 0.6 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. FK Termez Surkhon average 4.6 corners and 1.8 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Qizilqum Zarafshon have won five, drawn two and lost three. Two of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, Qizilqum Zarafshon won two, one was drawn and FK Termez Surkhon won one. The last time they met, on 17 Apr 2026, it finished Qizilqum Zarafshon 1-0 FK Termez Surkhon.
The case against. FK Termez Surkhon's record still gives them 35% to win.
The read. Qizilqum Zarafshon to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Qizilqum Zarafshon the likelier winners; Qizilqum Zarafshon are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Qizilqum Zarafshon; the meetings favour Qizilqum Zarafshon. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 34%. Eight of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.19, 77% on the records (Qizilqum Zarafshon: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 9; FK Termez Surkhon: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Leave: Qizilqum Zarafshon or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Qizilqum Zarafshon or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Qizilqum Zarafshon Over 0.5 Goals (FK Termez Surkhon's own games don't back it (2 of 5)). Predicted score: Qizilqum Zarafshon 1-0 FK Termez Surkhon (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).