ES Zarzis vs ES Hammam Sousse

Match details. Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 14:30 Lagos time. It is played at Abdessalem Kazouz Stadium, Zarzis.

What's at stake. ES Zarzis are 12th on 3 points after 4 games, 1 point behind AS Marsa, level on points with ES Metlaoui. A win would take them above AS Marsa. ES Hammam Sousse are 15th on 1 point after 4 games, 1 point behind Olympique Béja, 1 point clear of CS Hammam-Lif. A win would take them above Olympique Béja.

Form. ES Zarzis have won five, drawn none and lost five of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L W L. ES Hammam Sousse have won one, drawn four and lost five of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L D L.

The numbers. ES Zarzis score 1.1 and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and three games without a goal. ES Zarzis average 3.4 shots (1.0 on target), 1.9 corners and 1.3 cards a game. ES Hammam Sousse score 0.7 and concede 1.3 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. ES Hammam Sousse average 6.7 shots (3.1 on target), 4.1 corners and 2.0 cards a game.

Head to head. In the last seven meetings ES Zarzis have won two, drawn two and lost three. Three of the seven went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, ES Zarzis won one, two were drawn and ES Hammam Sousse won one. The last time they met, on 29 May 2022, it finished ES Zarzis 1-1 ES Hammam Sousse.

Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 42%; four of the last seven meetings went under 2.5.

The case against. ES Hammam Sousse's record still gives them 36% to win.

The read. ES Zarzis to win. Their goals for and against make ES Zarzis the likelier winners; ES Zarzis are the stronger side on form and the table.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: ES Zarzis 2-0 ES Hammam Sousse (13% chance).