IFK Mariehamn vs Tampereen Ilves
Match details. Veikkausliiga, Relegation Group - 26. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time. It is played at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Marie Harbor. The referee is Matti Roth.
What's at stake. IFK Mariehamn are 5th on 17 points after 25 games, 10 points behind SJK, level on points with FF Jaro. Tampereen Ilves are 2nd on 34 points after 25 games, 2 points behind Lahti, 2 points clear of Turku PS. A win would take them above Lahti. It is played over two legs.
Form. IFK Mariehamn have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W W. In this competition IFK Mariehamn have gone L W L W W W. Tampereen Ilves have won six, drawn none and lost four of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L L. In this competition Tampereen Ilves have gone W W W L L L.
The numbers. IFK Mariehamn score 1.2 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. IFK Mariehamn average 12.0 shots (2.8 on target), 5.6 corners and 2.8 cards a game, with 48% of the ball. Tampereen Ilves score 1.7 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. Tampereen Ilves average 11.9 shots (4.1 on target), 4.2 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 44% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings IFK Mariehamn have won one, drawn three and lost five. Four of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, IFK Mariehamn won one, one was drawn and Tampereen Ilves won two. The last time they met, on 9 Aug 2026, it finished IFK Mariehamn 0-2 Tampereen Ilves: IFK Mariehamn had 18 shots to 11, 65% of the ball, four yellow cards.
The case against. IFK Mariehamn's record still gives them 39% to win.
The read. Tampereen Ilves to win. A tight game. Tampereen Ilves are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Tampereen Ilves; the meetings favour Tampereen Ilves. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 36%. Five of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Tampereen Ilves or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Tampereen Ilves Over 0.5 goals (IFK Mariehamn's own games don't back it (2 of 5)). Predicted score: IFK Mariehamn 0-1 Tampereen Ilves (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).