Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen

Match details. Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam. The referee is Serdar Gozubuyuk.

What's at stake. Ajax are 5th on 14 points after 7 games, 2 points behind Twente, 1 point clear of Fortuna Sittard. A win would take them above Twente. NEC Nijmegen are 11th on 8 points after 7 games, 1 point behind Heerenveen, 2 points clear of Sparta Rotterdam. A win would take them above Heerenveen.

Team news. Ajax are without S. Berghuis (inactive), D. Blind (back injury), Caio Henrique (injury), K. Dolberg (knee injury), A. Gaaei (inactive), S. Berghuis (inactive). S. Berghuis is their main creator. NEC Nijmegen are without D. Fonville (ankle injury), E. Mor (groin injury), B. Nuytinck (ankle injury), P. Sandler (inactive), D. Geiger (inactive), K. Sierhuis (inactive).

Form. Ajax have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W L W. NEC Nijmegen have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L D L.

The numbers. Ajax score three and concede 2.2 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Ajax average 18.3 shots (7.9 on target), 7.9 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 64% of the ball. NEC Nijmegen score 1.4 and concede 2.6 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. NEC Nijmegen average 11.5 shots (4.6 on target), 3.5 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 61% of the ball.

Head to head. In the last ten meetings Ajax have won five, drawn four and lost one. Six of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, Ajax won one, two were drawn and NEC Nijmegen won one. The last time they met, on 21 Feb 2026, it finished Ajax 1-1 NEC Nijmegen: Ajax had 9 shots to 18, 48% of the ball, two yellow cards.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 76% against the records' 42%.

The read. No firm call: Ajax are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Ajax the likelier winners; Ajax are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Ajax. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 84%. Six of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Ajax Over 1.5 goals (NEC Nijmegen's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); NEC Nijmegen Under 1.5 goals (NEC Nijmegen's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); Under 5.5 Goals (Ajax are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Ajax 2-1 NEC Nijmegen (10% chance).