Union Berlin vs SV 07 Elversberg
Match details. Union Berlin host SV 07 Elversberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 14:30 Lagos time at An der Alten Försterei, Berlin. Tobias Reichel is the referee for this match.
What's at stake. Union Berlin are 17th on 1 point after 4 games, two points behind Hamburger SV and 1 point clear of Borussia Mönchengladbach. A win would take them above Hamburger SV. SV 07 Elversberg are 8th on 7 points after 4 games, level on points with FSV Mainz 05 and 1 point clear of RB Leipzig. A win would take them above FSV Mainz 05.
Team news. Union Berlin are without A. Ilic through illness, J. Juranovic with an achilles tendon injury, A. Markgraf with a knee injury, S. Nsoki with a muscle injury, and O. Burke with an achilles tendon injury. SV 07 Elversberg are without F. Onyeka due to a foot injury and L. Seifert with an ankle injury.
Form. Union Berlin have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, averaging 1.1 points a game. Their last five results are L L L D W. SV 07 Elversberg have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, with 2.0 points a game. Their last five read D L W W W.
The numbers. Union Berlin score 2.2 and concede two a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. They average 12.2 shots (5.8 on target), 5.0 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 46% of the ball. SV 07 Elversberg score 2.2 and concede two a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. They average 9.6 shots (4.6 on target), 4.0 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 42% possession.
The case against. Union Berlin's record still gives them a 20% chance to win.
The read. SV 07 Elversberg to win. An open game. SV 07 Elversberg are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour SV 07 Elversberg. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 92%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.17, 77% on the records (Union Berlin: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; SV 07 Elversberg: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.18. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: SV 07 Elversberg or Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Union Berlin 1-2 SV 07 Elversberg (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).