PADPAD

14:30Sat 10 Oct

STU

STU

Paderborn vs Stuttgart

CLASS A

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 14:30 Lagos time. It is played at Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn. The referee is Felix Zwayer.

What's at stake. Paderborn are 12th on 4 points after 4 games, 1 point behind FC Schalke 04, level on points with 1. FC Köln. A win would take them above FC Schalke 04. Stuttgart are 15th on 3 points after 4 games, level on points with 1899 Hoffenheim, level on points with Hamburger SV. A win would take them above 1899 Hoffenheim.

Team news. Paderborn are without N. Awortwie-Grant (knee injury), L. Eickel (back injury), T. Gayret (knee injury), M. Hoffmeier (muscle injury), S. Klaas (muscle injury), N. Awortwie-Grant (knee injury). Stuttgart are without A. Al Dakhil (knee injury), J. Diehl (muscle injury), N. Nartey (muscle injury), T. Tomas (muscle injury), D. Zagadou (muscle injury), A. Al Dakhil (knee injury).

Form. Paderborn have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L D W. Stuttgart have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W W L.

The numbers. Paderborn score 1.3 and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and four games without a goal. Paderborn average 12.2 shots (4.2 on target), 5.6 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 47% of the ball. Stuttgart score 1.8 and concede 2.5 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet. Stuttgart average 12.9 shots (5.5 on target), 5.8 corners and 1.7 cards a game, with 53% of the ball.

Head to head. In the last three meetings Paderborn have won none, drawn one and lost two. Two of the three went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 31 Jan 2023, it finished Paderborn 1-2 Stuttgart: Paderborn had 1 shots to 22, 28% of the ball, six yellow cards.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 62% against the records' 31%.

The read. No firm call: Stuttgart are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Stuttgart the likelier winners; Stuttgart are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Paderborn 1-2 Stuttgart (10% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Stuttgart or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

PAD 6 of 7 (86%) · STU 4 of 6 (67%)85.1%

Stuttgart: the bet landed in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Paderborn: the bet landed in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 76% · Stuttgart: only games against sides at Paderborn's level · Paderborn: only games against sides at Stuttgart's level

Stuttgart or Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.15

PAD 6 of 7 (86%) · STU 3 of 6 (50%)67.5%

Stuttgart: the bet landed in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Paderborn: the bet landed in 3 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 68% · Stuttgart: only games against sides at Paderborn's level · Paderborn: only games against sides at Stuttgart's level

GOALS

Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

PAD 4 of 6 (67%) · STU 7 of 7 (100%)95.4%

Paderborn: over 0.5 goals in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Stuttgart: over 0.5 goals in 7 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 83% · Paderborn: only games against sides at Stuttgart's level · Stuttgart: only games against sides at Paderborn's level

Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.34

PAD 2 of 6 (33%) · STU 6 of 7 (86%)56.7%

Paderborn: over 2.5 goals in 2 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Stuttgart: over 2.5 goals in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 60% · Paderborn: only games against sides at Stuttgart's level · Stuttgart: only games against sides at Paderborn's level

HALVES

Under 2.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.27

PAD 6 of 6 (100%) · STU 5 of 7 (71%)85.7%

Paderborn: the bet landed in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Stuttgart: the bet landed in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 86% · on half-time scores · Paderborn: only games against sides at Stuttgart's level · Stuttgart: only games against sides at Paderborn's level

1st Half - GG/NG: NoPAGE ONLY

1.37

PAD 5 of 6 (83%) · STU 5 of 7 (71%)77.4%

Paderborn: the bet landed in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Stuttgart: the bet landed in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 77% · on half-time scores · Paderborn: only games against sides at Stuttgart's level · Stuttgart: only games against sides at Paderborn's level

Under 1.5 first-half goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.91

PAD 4 of 6 (67%) · STU 4 of 7 (57%)61.9%

Paderborn: the bet landed in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Stuttgart: the bet landed in 4 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 62% · on half-time scores · Paderborn: only games against sides at Stuttgart's level · Stuttgart: only games against sides at Paderborn's level

Left off the list: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–2 9.5%

Paderborn goals →

Stuttgart goals ↓

0-07%

1-07%

2-04%

3-01%

4-00.4%

5-00.1%

0-110%

1-113%

2-17%

3-12%

4-10.7%

5-10.1%

0-29%

1-29%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.5%

5-20.1%

0-35%

1-35%

2-33%

3-31%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-42%

1-42%

2-41%

3-40.4%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.6%

1-50.6%

2-50.4%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

PADERBORNLDWDDWDLLW1.30 PPG

STUTTGARTDWDLWLWWLL1.40 PPG

THE NUMBERS

PADERBORN HOMExSTUTTGART AWAY

1.30SCORED A GAME2.101.50CONCEDED A GAME1.9030%CLEAN SHEETS10%75%FAILED TO SCORE25%5.60CORNERS A GAME5.802.40CARDS A GAME1.700.67xG1.821.43xG AGAINST2.75

THE BANK

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

58%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

62%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

77%

NO · 85/90

PADERBORN OR DRAW

76%

NO · 80/85

STUTTGART OR DRAW

33%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (4 and 4 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 3

PADERBORN 0 · 0%DRAW 1STUTTGART 2 · 67%

2 of 3BOTH TEAMS SCORED

2 of 3OVER 1.5 GOALS

2 of 3OVER 2.5 GOALS

0 of 3OVER 3.5 GOALS

2014-12-20Paderborn 0 – 0 Stuttgart

2015-05-23Paderborn 1 – 2 Stuttgart

2023-01-31Paderborn 1 – 2 Stuttgart

TEAM NEWS

PADERBORN

Out: N. Awortwie-Grant (Knee Injury), L. Eickel (Back Injury), T. Gayret (Knee Injury), M. Hoffmeier (Muscle Injury), S. Klaas (Muscle Injury), N. Awortwie-Grant (Knee Injury)

STUTTGART

Out: A. Al Dakhil (Knee Injury), J. Diehl (Muscle Injury), N. Nartey (Muscle Injury), T. Tomas (Muscle Injury), D. Zagadou (Muscle Injury), A. Al Dakhil (Knee Injury)

TRENDS

Paderborn have scored in 60% of their games.

Stuttgart have scored in 80% of their games.

Paderborn kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

Stuttgart kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetshead to headleague tableteam newscornerscards