FC Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec
Match details. This is a 1. Liga regular season round 10 clash. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time at Městský fotbalový stadion Srbská, Brno. The referee is D. Vokoun.
What's at stake. Brno sit 6th on 16 points after 9 games, level with Teplice and 1 point clear of Sparta Praha. A win would lift them above Teplice. Jablonec are 8th on 14 points after 9 games, 1 point behind Sparta Praha and level with Hradec Králové. A win would push them above Sparta Praha.
Form. Brno have won five, drawn one and lost three of their last nine, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first, are L W L W W and in this competition they have gone L W L W W W. Jablonec have won four, drawn two and lost three of their last nine, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first, are D L W L D and in this competition they have gone D L W L D L.
The numbers. At home in their last five, Brno have scored 1.8 and conceded 1 per game, keeping one clean sheet. They average 11.6 shots, 3.8 on target, 3.1 corners, 1.6 cards and hold 47% of the ball. Jablonec have scored 1.2 and conceded 1 per game over their last nine, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. They average 15.2 shots, 3.9 on target, 4.6 corners, 1.5 cards and control 56% of possession.
Head to head. In the last six meetings Brno have won one and lost five. Four of those six games went over 2.5 goals and both sides scored in four. Jablonec have won the last four meetings. The most recent clash on 21 May 2023 ended 0-1 to Jablonec, with Brno registering 22 shots to 11, 60% of the ball and three yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. Brno look the better side on form, yet head-to-head favours Jablonec, who have won five of the last six. Their goals for and against suggest a tight game, while the over 2.5 record sits at 50%. Four of the last six meetings went over 2.5 and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Their goals for and against point to a tight game, yet the over 2.5 record is only 50%.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side. Four of the last six meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: FC Zbrojovka Brno 1-2 FK Jablonec (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).