Real Madrid vs Sevilla
Sevilla scored under 1.5 in 3 of 5 away · Real Madrid conceded under 1.5 in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 72% · H2H 5 of 6 · Sevilla: only games against sides at Real Madrid's level · Real Madrid: only games against sides at Sevilla's level
Match details. LaLiga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid.
What's at stake. Real Madrid are 4th on 18 points after 8 games, 1 point behind Real Betis, 4 points clear of Sevilla. A win would take them above Real Betis. Sevilla are 5th on 14 points after 8 games, 4 points behind Real Madrid, 1 point clear of Real Sociedad.
Team news. Real Madrid are without R. Asencio (broken leg), Eder Militao (hamstring injury), Rodrygo (knee injury), Vinicius Junior (red card), F. Mendy (hip injury), R. Asencio (broken leg). Sevilla are without J. Guridi (muscle injury), Marcao (muscle injury), I. Romero (red card), M. Sierra (shoulder injury), G. Kochorashvili (injury), J. Guridi (muscle injury).
Form. Real Madrid have won eight, drawn none and lost two of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W W. Sevilla have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W W D.
The numbers. Real Madrid score three and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Real Madrid average 15.6 shots (7.0 on target), 7.0 corners and 2.3 cards a game, with 52% of the ball. Sevilla score 1.6 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Sevilla average 10.1 shots (4.4 on target), 3.2 corners and 3.5 cards a game, with 42% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Real Madrid have won nine, drawn one and lost none. Five of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, Real Madrid won four. The last time they met, on 17 May 2026, it finished Real Madrid 1-0 Sevilla: Real Madrid had 12 shots to 14, 59% of the ball, four yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 79% against the records' 59%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The read. No firm call: Real Madrid are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Real Madrid the likelier winners; Real Madrid are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Real Madrid; the meetings favour Real Madrid. Their goals for and against point to an open game.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.13, 82% on the records (Real Madrid: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 8; Sevilla: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5 away). Full cover: Sevilla Under 1.5 Goals at 1.22. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Leave: Over 5.5 cards (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Real Madrid 3-0 Sevilla (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).