INTERNATIONAL CLUBS - UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

AVAST

20:00Wed 14 Oct

FEN

Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce Istanbul

CLASS A

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THE READ

Match details. UEFA Champions League, League Stage - 2. Kick-off is Wed 14 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Villa Park, Birmingham. The referee is Ivan Kruzliak.

What's at stake. Aston Villa are 11th on 3 points after 1 game, level on points with Villarreal, level on points with Real Betis. A win would take them above Villarreal. Fenerbahce Istanbul are 24th on 1 point after 1 game, level on points with Shakhtar Donetsk, level on points with PSV Eindhoven. A win would take them above Shakhtar Donetsk.

Team news. Aston Villa are without M. Cisse (off the roster), T. Harwood-Bellis (off the roster), G. Hemmings (knee injury), I. Maatsen (ankle injury), B. Madjo (off the roster), A. Onana (knee injury). I. Maatsen is their centre-back. Fenerbahce Istanbul are without A. Diouf (off the roster), A. Fall (off the roster), M. Muldur (knee injury), J. Oosterwolde (achilles tendon injury), M. Yandas (off the roster), A. Diouf (off the roster).

Form. Aston Villa have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W L W. In this competition Aston Villa have gone W. Fenerbahce Istanbul have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D D L.

The numbers. Aston Villa score 1.5 and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Aston Villa average 13.4 shots (4.6 on target), 3.9 corners and 2.5 cards a game, with 47% of the ball. Fenerbahce Istanbul score 1.6 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets. Fenerbahce Istanbul average 14.5 shots (6.8 on target), 5.7 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 54% of the ball.

Head to head. The last time they met, on 22 Jan 2026, it finished Aston Villa 1-0 Fenerbahce Istanbul: Aston Villa had 12 shots to 13, 37% of the ball, nine yellow cards.

The case against. Fenerbahce Istanbul's record still gives them 49% to win.

The read. Aston Villa or the draw. A draw is live. An open game. Their goals for and against make Fenerbahce Istanbul the likelier winners; Fenerbahce Istanbul are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Fenerbahce Istanbul. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 71%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Cards (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Aston Villa 2-1 Fenerbahce Istanbul (6% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Aston Villa or Over 1.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY

no price yet

AST 8 of 10 (80%) · FEN 4 of 5 (80%)83%

Aston Villa: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Fenerbahce Istanbul: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 86% · each game weighed by who it was against · Aston Villa without I. Maatsen (rule 3)

Aston Villa or Over 2.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY

1.22

AST 8 of 10 (80%) · FEN 3 of 5 (60%)64.7%

Aston Villa: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Fenerbahce Istanbul: the bet landed in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 71% · each game weighed by who it was against · Aston Villa without I. Maatsen (rule 3)

GOALS

Over 1.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.18

AST 8 of 10 (80%) · FEN 4 of 5 (80%)74.7%

Aston Villa: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Fenerbahce Istanbul: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 86% · each game weighed by who it was against

Over 2.5 GoalsLEANIN CODES

1.57

AST 8 of 10 (80%) · FEN 3 of 5 (60%)56.4%

Aston Villa: over 2.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Fenerbahce Istanbul: over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 71% · each game weighed by who it was against

FENERBAHCE ISTANBUL GOALS

Fenerbahce Istanbul Over 0.5 goalsLEANIN CODES

1.43

AST 4 of 5 (80%) · FEN 9 of 10 (90%)64.5%

Fenerbahce Istanbul scored in 4 of 5 away · Aston Villa conceded in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 91% · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.19

AST 8 of 10 (80%) · FEN 4 of 5 (80%)82.7%

Aston Villa: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Fenerbahce Istanbul: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 86% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.32

AST 7 of 10 (70%) · FEN 4 of 5 (80%)78.3%

Aston Villa: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Fenerbahce Istanbul: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 82% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Over 1.5 Cards (the numbers (93%) and the records (69%) are 24 points apart, and nothing settles it); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 2–1 6.5%

Aston Villa goals →

Fenerbahce Istanbul goals ↓

0-07%

1-06%

2-04%

3-01%

4-00.4%

5-00.1%

0-110%

1-112%

2-17%

3-12%

4-10.7%

5-10.2%

0-28%

1-210%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.6%

5-20.1%

0-35%

1-35%

2-33%

3-31%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-42%

1-42%

2-41%

3-40.5%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.6%

1-50.7%

2-50.4%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

ASTON VILLAWLLLDWLWWD1.40 PPG

FENERBAHCE ISTANBULLDWWWLDDWW1.80 PPG

THE NUMBERS

ASTON VILLA HOMExFENERBAHCE ISTANBUL AWAY

1.50SCORED A GAME2.301.70CONCEDED A GAME0.9010%CLEAN SHEETS40%50%FAILED TO SCORE0%3.88CORNERS A GAME5.702.50CARDS A GAME1.90

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

0.83POINTS A GAME1.86-0.83GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+1.86-3.6SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+4.51.0LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.06LEAGUE GAMES7

Fenerbahce Istanbul: the quality side - more shots than it allows, better form (last 5).

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

78%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

71%

OKAY · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

76%

NO · 85/90

ASTON VILLA OR DRAW

43%

NO · 80/85

FENERBAHCE ISTANBUL OR DRAW

82%

OKAY · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (6 and 7 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

ASTON VILLAxFENERBAHCE ISTANBUL

5GAMES51.20SCORED A GAME2.801.40CONCEDED A GAME0.402.6GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.260%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%60%BOTH SCORE20%4.6CARDS IN THEIR GAMES3.47.2CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES9.6

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 1

ASTON VILLA 1 · 100%DRAW 0FENERBAHCE ISTANBUL 0 · 0%

2026-01-22Aston Villa 1 – 0 Fenerbahce Istanbul

TEAM NEWS

ASTON VILLA

Out: M. Cisse (Off the roster), T. Harwood-Bellis (Off the roster), G. Hemmings (Knee Injury), I. Maatsen (Ankle Injury), B. Madjo (Off the roster), A. Onana (Knee Injury)

FENERBAHCE ISTANBUL

Out: A. Diouf (Off the roster), A. Fall (Off the roster), M. Muldur (Knee Injury), J. Oosterwolde (Achilles Tendon Injury), M. Yandas (Off the roster), A. Diouf (Off the roster)

TRENDS

Aston Villa have scored in 70% of their games.

Fenerbahce Istanbul have scored in 90% of their games.

Aston Villa kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

Fenerbahce Istanbul kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetshead to headleague tableteam newscornerscards