Villarreal vs Napoli
Match details. Champions League, League Stage - 2, kicks off Tue 13 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time at Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal. Referee Daniel Siebert.
What's at stake. Villarreal sit 21st on 0 points after one game, one point behind Fenerbahçe and level with Lille. A win would lift them above Fenerbahçe. Napoli sit 27th on 0 points after one game, level with Atletico Madrid and Lask Linz. A win would move them above Atletico Madrid.
Team news. Villarreal miss T. Buchanan (muscle injury) and N. Pepe (eye injury). Napoli are without Alisson Santos (muscle injury), F. Anguissa (groin injury), A. Buongiorno (knee injury), C. Favasuli (thigh injury), L. Marianucci (off the roster) and M. Olivera (groin injury).
Form. Villarreal have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game, with a recent run L W W L L. In this competition they have gone L. Napoli have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game, with a recent run W D W L L. In this competition they have gone L.
The numbers. Villarreal score 1.6 and concede 1.9 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. They average 16.0 shots (6.1 on target), 6.4 corners and 1.6 cards a game, holding 59% of the ball. Napoli score 1.6 and concede one a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets. They average 13.4 shots (4.8 on target), 4.5 corners and 1.0 cards a game, holding 51% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last four meetings Villarreal have won one, drawn one and lost two. None of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last meeting on 25 Feb 2016 ended 1-1, with Villarreal having six shots to 22, 31% of the ball and five yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. Their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 56%. Four of the last four meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Napoli's record still gives them 55% to win. Their records also put over 2.5 goals at 56%.
The read. Villarreal or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Napoli are the stronger side on form and the table, both teams' records favour Napoli and their goals for and against point to a tight game, with four of the last four meetings under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Villarreal Over 0.5 goals (Napoli's own games don't back it (5 of 10)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Villarreal 1-1 Napoli (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).