Schalke vs Mainz
Match details. Schalke host Mainz at VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is set for 14:30 Lagos time on Sat 17 Oct. Richard Hempel takes charge as the referee for this match.
What's at stake. Schalke sit 13th on 5 points after 5 games. They are 1 point behind Hamburger SV and level on points with Eintracht Frankfurt, so a win takes them above Hamburger SV. Mainz are 8th on 7 points from 5 games. They are 1 point behind Werder Bremen and level on points with SV Elversberg, knowing a win moves them above Werder Bremen.
Team news. Schalke are missing key options with M. Sylla out due to a leg injury and D. Ljubicic sidelined with a knee injury. Mainz have plenty of squad issues of their own. D. Kohr has a foot injury, O. Ruoppi and S. Widmer suffer from knee injuries, Silas has a broken shinbone, R. Zentner has a hand injury, and P. Nebel is out with a muscle injury.
Form. Schalke have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, averaging 1.5 points a game. Their last five matches read L D W D L. Mainz have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, picking up 1.6 points a game. Their last five run stands at L W L W D.
The numbers. Schalke score 1.1 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, keeping four clean sheets and failing to score in four. They average 10.8 shots (4.8 on target), 2.8 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 39% of the ball. Mainz score 4.4 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets. They average 15.1 shots (6.5 on target), 5.6 corners and 1.8 cards, with 50% possession.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings, Schalke have won six, drawn three and lost one. Four of those ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, Schalke won two with two drawn. The last time they met on 5 May 2023, it finished Schalke 3-2 Mainz, where Schalke had 16 shots to 10, 43% of the ball and five yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 64%. However, six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Schalke's record still gives them 37% to win. Even so, the meetings do not back them. Not everything points to a high-scoring game either, as six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The read. Mainz or the draw. An open game. The meetings favour Schalke. Their goals for and against point to an open game, and their records put over 2.5 goals at 64%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Mainz or draw and over 1.5 goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Schalke 1-2 Mainz (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).