Match details. Venezia FC host Napoli in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct at 14:00 Lagos time at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo in Venice. Juan Luca Sacchi is the referee for this match.
What's at stake. Venezia FC sit 20th on 0 points after 6 games, 4 points behind Fiorentina. Napoli are 8th on 10 points after 6 games, 1 point behind Como and level on points with Frosinone. A win would take Napoli above Como.
Team news. Venezia FC are without A. Adorante with a hernia, alongside G. Busio, A. Bella-Kotchap and T. Correia who have thigh injuries. B. Franjic has a shoulder injury and M. Sverko has a hip injury. Napoli miss A. Buongiorno with a knee injury, C. Favasuli with a thigh injury, A. Vergara with a calf injury, Alisson Santos with a muscle injury, plus F. Anguissa and M. Olivera with groin injuries.
Form. Venezia FC have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, taking 0.7 points a game. Their last five matches ended L L L L L. Napoli have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, averaging 1.6 points a game. Their last five read L W D W L.
The numbers. At home, Venezia FC score 1.4 and concede two a game in their last five, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. They average 14.8 shots (4.7 on target), 4.3 corners and 2.3 cards a game, with 58% of the ball. Napoli score 1.8 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. They average 11.4 shots (4.5 on target), 5.5 corners and 1.3 cards a game, with 50% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last four meetings, Venezia FC have won none, drawn one and lost three against Napoli. None of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in none. Their last meeting on 16 Mar 2025 finished Venezia FC 0-0 Napoli, where Venezia FC had 13 shots to 15, 43% of the ball and three yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree for this game. The odds board makes it 57% against the records' 80%.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals here. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 43%, and four of the last four meetings went under 2.5.
The read. No firm call: Napoli are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Napoli the likelier winners, and Napoli are the stronger side on form and the table. Both teams' records favour Napoli, and the head to head meetings favour Napoli.
The bets. Best bet: Venezia FC Under 1.5 Goals at 1.35, 74% on the records (Venezia FC scored under 1.5 in 4 of 6; Napoli conceded under 1.5 in 6 of 8). Full cover: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.22. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Venezia FC 1-2 Napoli (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).