Roma vs Genoa
Match details. Serie A, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time. It is played at Stadio Olimpico, Rome. The referee is Rosario Abisso.
What's at stake. Roma are 3rd on 14 points after 6 games, 2 points behind Lazio, 1 point clear of Frosinone. A win would take them above Lazio. Genoa are 17th on 4 points after 6 games, level on points with Monza, level on points with Parma. A win would take them above Monza.
Team news. Roma are without M. Bah (knee injury), B. Cristante (knee injury), P. Dybala (muscle injury), M. Kone (muscle injury), D. Malen (red card), M. Svilar (toe injury). Genoa are without L. Colombo (ankle injury), E. Havel (ankle injury), F. Meichtry (muscle injury), D. Sow (injury), L. Venturino (knee injury), Amorim (ankle injury).
Form. Roma have won four, drawn two and lost none of their last six, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D W W W. Genoa have won one, drawn one and lost four of their last six, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D L L.
The numbers. Roma score 2.3 and concede 0.5 a game over their last six, with four clean sheets. Roma average 18.7 shots (6.2 on target), 5.2 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 54% of the ball. Genoa score 0.8 and concede 1.8 a game over their last six, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Genoa average 11.5 shots (3.2 on target), 4.7 corners and 2.8 cards a game, with 46% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Roma have won six, drawn two and lost two. Four of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Roma won two, one was drawn and Genoa won one. The last time they met, on 8 Mar 2026, it finished Roma 1-2 Genoa: Roma had 8 shots to 11, 64% of the ball, four yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%; six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The read. Roma to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Roma the likelier winners; Roma are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Roma; the meetings favour Roma. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Roma Over 1.5 goals (Genoa's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); Under 4.5 Goals (Roma are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Roma are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Roma 2-1 Genoa (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).