Match details. UEFA Conference League, League Stage - 1. Kick-off is Thu 15 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Brann Stadion, Bergen. The referee is D. Cerny.
What's at stake. SK Brann are 21st on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with Panathinaikos, level on points with SC Braga. A win would take them above Panathinaikos. Lincoln Red Imps are 35th on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with FC Iberia 1999, level on points with Riga. A win would take them above FC Iberia 1999.
Form. SK Brann have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L L. Lincoln Red Imps have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W W. In this competition Lincoln Red Imps have gone L.
The numbers. SK Brann score 1.8 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. SK Brann average 10.9 shots (4.1 on target), 7.0 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 21% of the ball. Lincoln Red Imps score 1.3 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and four games without a goal. Lincoln Red Imps average 9.2 shots (3.9 on target), 5.5 corners and 2.9 cards a game.
The case against. Lincoln Red Imps's record still gives them 38% to win.
The read. SK Brann to win. An open game. SK Brann are the stronger side on form and the table. Their xG points to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 52%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.12, 88% on the records (SK Brann: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; Lincoln Red Imps: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.14. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 5.5 Goals (SK Brann are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: SK Brann 2-1 Lincoln Red Imps (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).