INTERNATIONAL CLUBS - UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE

HOFHOF

20:00Thu 15 Oct

BES

Hoffenheim vs Besiktas Istanbul

CLASS A

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 2. Kick-off is Thu 15 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Prezero Arena, Sinsheim. The referee is Lawrence Visser.

What's at stake. Hoffenheim are 29th on 0 points after 1 game, level on points with Celtic, level on points with AC Milan. A win would take them above Celtic. Besiktas Istanbul are 4th on 3 points after 1 game, level on points with Sparta Praha, level on points with Union St. Gilloise. A win would take them above Sparta Praha.

Team news. Hoffenheim are without L. Engelns (off the roster), A. Hajdari (muscle injury), P. Wimmer (thigh injury), L. Engelns (off the roster), A. Hajdari (muscle injury), P. Wimmer (thigh injury). Besiktas Istanbul are without V. Cerny (muscle injury), C. Keles (off the roster), M. Rashica (injury), D. Vlahovic (illness), V. Cerny (muscle injury), C. Keles (off the roster).

Form. Hoffenheim have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L W L. In this competition Hoffenheim have gone L. Besiktas Istanbul have won seven, drawn none and lost three of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W W.

The numbers. Hoffenheim score two and concede two a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Hoffenheim average 19.1 shots (5.5 on target), 8.2 corners and 2.8 cards a game, with 60% of the ball. Besiktas Istanbul score 2.3 and concede one a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Besiktas Istanbul average 16.3 shots (6.7 on target), 7.7 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 64% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 29% against the records' 58%.

The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 75%.

The read. No firm call: Besiktas Istanbul are the better side, but not at this price. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Besiktas Istanbul the likelier winners; Besiktas Istanbul are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Besiktas Istanbul.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Besiktas Istanbul or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Hoffenheim 1-1 Besiktas Istanbul (9% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.11

HOF 4 of 5 (80%) · BES 9 of 10 (90%)93.3%

Hoffenheim: under 5.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · Besiktas Istanbul: under 5.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90%

Under 4.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.28

HOF 2 of 5 (40%) · BES 7 of 10 (70%)72.9%

Hoffenheim: under 4.5 goals in 2 of 5 at home · Besiktas Istanbul: under 4.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 65%

HOFFENHEIM GOALS

Hoffenheim Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.15

HOF 5 of 5 (100%) · BES 7 of 10 (70%)72.1%

Hoffenheim scored in 5 of 5 at home · Besiktas Istanbul conceded in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75%

BESIKTAS ISTANBUL GOALS

Besiktas Istanbul Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.30

HOF 8 of 10 (80%) · BES 4 of 5 (80%)77.5%

Besiktas Istanbul scored in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Hoffenheim conceded in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 80%

HALVES

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.26

HOF 5 of 5 (100%) · BES 8 of 10 (80%)90%

Hoffenheim: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · Besiktas Istanbul: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · on half-time scores

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.17

HOF 4 of 5 (80%) · BES 8 of 10 (80%)81.7%

Hoffenheim: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Besiktas Istanbul: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85% · on half-time scores

2nd Half - Besiktas Istanbul Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.81

HOF 6 of 10 (60%) · BES 4 of 5 (80%)70%

Besiktas Istanbul: the bet landed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Hoffenheim: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 70% · on half-time scores

CARDS

Over 1.5 CardsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

HOF 5 of 8 (62%) · BES 9 of 10 (90%)76.3%

Hoffenheim's games: over 1.5 cards in 5 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Besiktas Istanbul's games: over 1.5 cards in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 76%

Left off the list: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Besiktas Istanbul or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Besiktas Istanbul or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 8.9%

Hoffenheim goals →

Besiktas Istanbul goals ↓

0-03%

1-03%

2-03%

3-01%

4-00.4%

5-00.1%

0-16%

1-19%

2-16%

3-13%

4-10.9%

5-10.2%

0-27%

1-29%

2-26%

3-23%

4-21.0%

5-20.3%

0-35%

1-37%

2-35%

3-32%

4-30.7%

5-30.2%

0-43%

1-44%

2-43%

3-41%

4-40.4%

5-40.1%

0-51%

1-52%

2-51%

3-50.5%

4-50.2%

5-50.1%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

HOFFENHEIMDWLWLLWLLL1.00 PPG

BESIKTAS ISTANBULWWLLWWWWLW2.10 PPG

THE NUMBERS

HOFFENHEIM HOMExBESIKTAS ISTANBUL AWAY

1.70SCORED A GAME2.302.20CONCEDED A GAME1.0020%CLEAN SHEETS30%0%FAILED TO SCORE14%8.25CORNERS A GAME7.702.75CARDS A GAME2.00

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

0.50POINTS A GAME2.14-0.83GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+1.14+2.8SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+5.20.6LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.46LEAGUE GAMES7

No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

92%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

90%

VERY GOOD · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

50%

NO · 85/90

HOFFENHEIM OR DRAW

52%

NO · 80/85

BESIKTAS ISTANBUL OR DRAW

50%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (6 and 7 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

HOFFENHEIMxBESIKTAS ISTANBUL

5GAMES51.80SCORED A GAME3.002.60CONCEDED A GAME1.404.4GOALS IN THEIR GAMES4.4100%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%100%OVER 2.5 GOALS100%100%BOTH SCORE80%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TEAM NEWS

HOFFENHEIM

Out: L. Engelns (Off the roster), A. Hajdari (Muscle Injury), P. Wimmer (Thigh Injury), L. Engelns (Off the roster), A. Hajdari (Muscle Injury), P. Wimmer (Thigh Injury)

BESIKTAS ISTANBUL

Out: V. Cerny (Muscle Injury), C. Keles (Off the roster), M. Rashica (Injury), D. Vlahovic (Illness), V. Cerny (Muscle Injury), C. Keles (Off the roster)

TRENDS

Hoffenheim have scored in 80% of their games.

Besiktas Istanbul have scored in 80% of their games.

Hoffenheim kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

Besiktas Istanbul kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetsleague tableteam newscornerscards