Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz
Match details. UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 2. Kick-off is Thu 15 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth. The referee is Jerome Brisard.
What's at stake. Bournemouth are 10th on 3 points after 1 game, level on points with OFI, level on points with Lyon. A win would take them above OFI. Sturm Graz are 17th on 1 point after 1 game, 2 points behind Omonia Nicosia, level on points with Rennes. A win would take them above Omonia Nicosia.
Team news. Bournemouth are without M. Aarons (off the roster), J. Araujo (thigh injury), F. Forster (off the roster), D. Jebbison (off the roster), E. J. Kroupi (foot injury), V. Milosavljevic (injury). Sturm Graz are without N. Geyrhofer (off the roster), L. Grgic (knee injury), S. Jatta (shoulder injury), O. Kiteishvili (calf injury), G. Mamageishvili (injury), F. Rozga (muscle injury). A. Vallci is their centre-back.
Form. Bournemouth have won two, drawn five and lost three of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W D W. In this competition Bournemouth have gone W. Sturm Graz have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D W W. In this competition Sturm Graz have gone D.
The numbers. Bournemouth score 1.6 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Bournemouth average 15.5 shots (5.1 on target), 5.1 corners and 2.9 cards a game, with 50% of the ball. Sturm Graz score 1.8 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Sturm Graz average 14.4 shots (4.3 on target), 7.3 corners and 2.9 cards a game, with 46% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Bournemouth the likelier winners, but Sturm Graz are the stronger side on form and the table. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The case against. Sturm Graz's record still gives them 40% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The read. Bournemouth or the draw. A draw is live. An open game. Their goals for and against make Bournemouth the likelier winners; Sturm Graz are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Bournemouth 3-0 Sturm Graz (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).