Benfica vs Celtic
Match details. UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 2. Kick-off is Thu 15 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estádio da Luz, Lisbon. The referee is Nikola Dabanovic.
What's at stake. Benfica are 7th on 3 points after 1 game, level on points with Ferencvarosi TC, level on points with Bayer Leverkusen. A win would take them above Ferencvarosi TC. Celtic are 28th on 0 points after 1 game, level on points with Levski Sofia, level on points with 1899 Hoffenheim. A win would take them above Levski Sofia.
Team news. Benfica are without D. Banjaqui (muscle injury), E. Barrenechea (injury), J. Kaminski (muscle injury), D. Banjaqui (muscle injury), E. Barrenechea (injury), J. Kaminski (muscle injury). Celtic are without C. Carter-Vickers (health problems), C. Duran (personal reasons), A. Johnston (leg injury), S. Mheuka (off the roster), C. Osmand (ankle injury), J. van den Berg (off the roster). C. Carter-Vickers is their centre-back.
Form. Benfica have won nine, drawn none and lost one of their last ten, 2.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W W. Celtic have won seven, drawn none and lost three of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L L W. In this competition Celtic have gone L.
The numbers. Benfica score three and concede 0.7 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets. Benfica average 14.7 shots (5.8 on target), 6.8 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 62% of the ball. Celtic score 1.8 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets. Celtic average 18.7 shots (7.2 on target), 9.1 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 58% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last two meetings Benfica have won one, drawn one and lost none. One of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 20 Nov 2012, it finished Benfica 2-1 Celtic.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 79% against the records' 57%.
The read. No firm call: Benfica are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Benfica the likelier winners; Benfica are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Benfica. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 72%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Benfica Over 0.5 Goals (Celtic's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Celtic Under 1.5 goals (Celtic's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Under 5.5 Goals (Benfica are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Benfica 2-1 Celtic (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).