Match details. UEFA Conference League, League Stage - 1. Kick-off is Thu 15 Oct, 17:45 Lagos time. It is played at Stadion Bâlgarska Armija, Sofia. The referee is J. Goncalves.
What's at stake. PFC CSKA Sofia are 13th on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with KuPS, level on points with HNK Hajduk Split. A win would take them above KuPS. Monaco are 3rd on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with Brighton, level on points with FK Jablonec. A win would take them above Brighton.
Form. PFC CSKA Sofia have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W W. Monaco have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W D W W. In this competition Monaco have gone W W.
The numbers. PFC CSKA Sofia score 2.3 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. PFC CSKA Sofia average 15.0 shots (7.3 on target), 4.3 corners and 2.7 cards a game, with 59% of the ball. Monaco score 2.2 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Monaco average 12.0 shots (4.9 on target), 3.9 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 50% of the ball.
The case against. PFC CSKA Sofia's record still gives them 39% to win.
The read. Monaco to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make PFC CSKA Sofia the likelier winners. Their xG points to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.17, 91% on the records (PFC CSKA Sofia: over 1.5 goals in 10 of 10; Monaco: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Backup: Monaco Over 0.5 Goals at 1.09. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (Monaco are a clear winner, no Unders); Monaco Over 1.5 goals (PFC CSKA Sofia's own games don't back it (4 of 10)); PFC CSKA Sofia Under 1.5 goals (PFC CSKA Sofia's own games don't back it (4 of 10)). Predicted score: PFC CSKA Sofia 1-2 Monaco (7% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).