SC Covilha vs UD Oliveirense

Match details. Liga Portugal 3, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 17:30 Lagos time.

What's at stake. SC Covilha are 8th on 5 points after 5 games, 2 points clear of São João Ver. UD Oliveirense are 3rd on 8 points after 5 games, level on points with Fafe.

Form. SC Covilha have won two, drawn five and lost three of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L D L D. UD Oliveirense have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W W.

The numbers. SC Covilha score one and concede one a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. SC Covilha average 7.7 shots (2.2 on target), 5.6 corners and 2.4 cards a game. UD Oliveirense score 1.5 and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. UD Oliveirense average 10.0 shots (4.0 on target), 4.5 corners and 2.2 cards a game.

Head to head. In the last ten meetings SC Covilha have won seven, drawn two and lost one. Four of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, SC Covilha won three and UD Oliveirense won one. The last time they met, on 6 May 2023, it finished SC Covilha 2-1 UD Oliveirense: SC Covilha had 15 shots to 10, 39% of the ball, six yellow cards.

Where it pulls both ways. UD Oliveirense are the form side, but the meetings favour SC Covilha: in the last ten meetings, SC Covilha won seven, UD Oliveirense won one and two were drawn.

The read. No side to back. A tight game. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%. Six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: SC Covilha 1-1 UD Oliveirense (13% chance).