LFLEC

11:00Sat 10 Oct

ADM

Leca FC vs AD Marco 09

CLASS E

THE READ

Match details. Liga Portugal 3, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 11:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio do Leca Futebol Clube, Leca da Palmeira.

What's at stake. Leca FC are 6th on 7 points after 5 games, level on points with Louletano. A win would take them above Louletano. AD Marco 09 are 2nd on 10 points after 5 games, 5 points behind CF Os Belenenses.

Form. Leca FC have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L D. AD Marco 09 have won three, drawn one and lost one of their last five, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W L W.

The numbers. Leca FC score 1.4 and concede 1.6 a game over their last five, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Leca FC average 13.1 shots (4.9 on target), 5.7 corners and 2.6 cards a game. AD Marco 09 score 1.2 and concede 0.6 a game over their last five, with three clean sheets. AD Marco 09 average 10.3 shots (3.7 on target), 4.1 corners and 2.5 cards a game.

Head to head. In the last four meetings Leca FC have won two, drawn one and lost one. One of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 18 May 2025, it finished Leca FC 2-3 AD Marco 09.

Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Leca FC the likelier winners, but AD Marco 09 are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour AD Marco 09.

The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 46%. Three of the last four meetings went under 2.5.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: AD Marco 09 or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); AD Marco 09 or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); AD Marco 09 or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Leca FC 1-1 AD Marco 09 (13% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

LEC 5 of 5 (100%) · ADM 5 of 5 (100%)94.9%

Leca FC: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · AD Marco 09: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · H2H 4 of 4 · Leca FC: only games against sides at AD Marco 09's level · AD Marco 09: only games against sides at Leca FC's level

Under 4.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

LEC 4 of 5 (80%) · ADM 5 of 5 (100%)87.4%

Leca FC: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · AD Marco 09: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · H2H 3 of 4 · Leca FC: only games against sides at AD Marco 09's level · AD Marco 09: only games against sides at Leca FC's level

Under 3.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.21

LEC 4 of 5 (80%) · ADM 5 of 5 (100%)73%

Leca FC: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · AD Marco 09: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · H2H 3 of 4 · Leca FC: only games against sides at AD Marco 09's level · AD Marco 09: only games against sides at Leca FC's level

LECA FC GOALS

Leca FC Under 1.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.49

LEC 3 of 5 (60%) · ADM 4 of 5 (80%)55.7%

Leca FC scored under 1.5 in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · AD Marco 09 conceded under 1.5 in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70% · H2H 3 of 4 · Leca FC: only games against sides at AD Marco 09's level · AD Marco 09: only games against sides at Leca FC's level

Left off the list: AD Marco 09 or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); AD Marco 09 or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); AD Marco 09 or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 12.9%

Leca FC goals →

AD Marco 09 goals ↓

0-08%

1-010%

2-08%

3-04%

4-02%

5-00.5%

0-17%

1-113%

2-19%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.5%

0-25%

1-27%

2-25%

3-23%

4-21.0%

5-20.3%

0-32%

1-33%

2-32%

3-31.0%

4-30.4%

5-30.1%

0-40.5%

1-40.7%

2-40.5%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.2%

2-50.1%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 5

LECA FCDLWLW1.40 PPG

AD MARCO 09WLWDW2.00 PPG

THE NUMBERS

LECA FC HOMExAD MARCO 09 AWAY

1.40SCORED A GAME1.201.60CONCEDED A GAME0.600%CLEAN SHEETS60%40%FAILED TO SCORE20%5.70CORNERS A GAME4.102.60CARDS A GAME2.50

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

649 OF 684

NO PRICE YET

The league averages 5.0+ cards a game.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

81%

OKAY · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

45%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

92%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

LECA FC OR DRAW

75%

NO · 80/85

AD MARCO 09 OR DRAW

70%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (4 and 5 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 4

LECA FC 2 · 50%DRAW 1AD MARCO 09 1 · 25%

1 of 4BOTH TEAMS SCORED

1 of 4OVER 1.5 GOALS

1 of 4OVER 2.5 GOALS

1 of 4OVER 3.5 GOALS

2024-09-29Leca FC 0 – 0 AD Marco 09

2025-02-09Leca FC 1 – 0 AD Marco 09

2025-04-27Leca FC 1 – 0 AD Marco 09

2025-05-18Leca FC 2 – 3 AD Marco 09

TRENDS

Leca FC have scored in 80% of their games.

AD Marco 09 have scored in 90% of their games.

Leca FC failed to score in 40% of their games.

AD Marco 09 failed to score in 20% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againsthead to headleague tablecornerscards