SS San Giovanni vs SP Tre Fiori
Match details. Campionato Sammarinese, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. SS San Giovanni are 12th on 3 points after 4 games, level on points with Cailungo, level on points with Murata. A win would take them above Cailungo. SP Tre Fiori are 4th on 9 points after 4 games, 1 point behind Virtus, level on points with La Fiorita. A win would take them above Virtus.
Form. SS San Giovanni have won three, drawn none and lost six of their last nine league games, 1.0 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L W L L L. SP Tre Fiori have won three, drawn none and lost one of their last four league games, 2.2 points a game. Their last four in the league, newest first: L W W W.
The numbers. SS San Giovanni score one and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. SS San Giovanni average 4.0 corners and 2.0 cards a game. SP Tre Fiori score 3.5 and concede 1.2 a game over their last four, with two clean sheets. SP Tre Fiori average 8.4 shots (3.3 on target), 1.7 corners and 2.7 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings SS San Giovanni have won one, drawn two and lost seven. Seven of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, one was drawn and SP Tre Fiori won three. The last time they met, on 21 Jan 2026, it finished SS San Giovanni 0-4 SP Tre Fiori.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 88% against the records' 55%.
The read. No firm call: SP Tre Fiori are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. SP Tre Fiori are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour SP Tre Fiori; the meetings favour SP Tre Fiori. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 64%. Seven of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: SS San Giovanni 1-2 SP Tre Fiori (9% chance).
The agreed story. SP Tre Fiori or the draw, an open game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).