Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda

Match details. Rs1, League Stage - 1. Kick-off is Thu 15 Oct, 17:45 Lagos time. It is played at Stadio di Cornaredo, Lugano. The referee is F. Badstubner.

What's at stake. Lugano are 24th on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with Heart Of Midlothian, level on points with FK Crvena Zvezda. A win would take them above Heart Of Midlothian. Crvena Zvezda are 25th on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with FC Lugano, level on points with FC Thun. A win would take them above FC Lugano.

Form. Lugano have won eight, drawn two and lost none of their last ten, 2.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W D W. Crvena Zvezda have won eight, drawn one and lost one of their last ten, 2.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W D.

The numbers. Lugano score 2.6 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Lugano average 14.3 shots (6.6 on target), 5.4 corners and 3.1 cards a game, with 58% of the ball. Crvena Zvezda score 1.6 and concede 0.2 a game in their last five away, with four clean sheets. Crvena Zvezda average 15.9 shots (6.8 on target), 4.1 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 60% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%.

The case against. Crvena Zvezda's record still gives them 40% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game.

The read. Lugano to win. A draw is live. An open game. Their goals for and against make Lugano the likelier winners; Lugano are the stronger side on form and the table. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Lugano Over 0.5 goals (Crvena Zvezda's own games don't back it (1 of 5)); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Lugano 2-1 Crvena Zvezda (9% chance).