Match details. Brasileiro Serie C, Second Stage - 6. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 21:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Maringa FC PR are 2nd on 8 points after 5 games, 3 points behind Santa Cruz, 3 points clear of Floresta. A win would take them level on points with Santa Cruz. Floresta EC CE are 3rd on 5 points after 5 games, 3 points behind Maringá, 3 points clear of Botafogo PB. A win would take them level on points with Maringá.
Form. Maringa FC PR have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten league games, 1.6 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: D D W L W. In this competition Maringa FC PR have gone D D W L W W. Floresta EC CE have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten league games, 1.5 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: D D L W L. In this competition Floresta EC CE have gone D D L W L W.
The numbers. Maringa FC PR score 0.9 and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and three games without a goal. Maringa FC PR average 13.6 shots (4.5 on target), 7.0 corners and 1.9 cards a game. Floresta EC CE score one and concede one a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Floresta EC CE average 10.5 shots (3.1 on target), 4.8 corners and 2.4 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last three meetings Maringa FC PR have won one, drawn two and lost none. None of the three went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 6 Sep 2026, it finished Maringa FC PR 1-0 Floresta EC CE.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 57% against the records' 35%.
The read. No firm call: Maringa FC PR are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Maringa FC PR the likelier winners; Maringa FC PR are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 17%. Three of the last three meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.15, rated 77% (Maringa FC PR: under 3.5 goals in 10 of 10; Floresta EC CE: under 3.5 goals in 9 of 10). Backup: Under 1.5 first-half goals at 1.26. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: Maringa FC PR 1-1 Floresta EC CE (13% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Maringa FC PR the favourite), a tight game.
The league run. Maringa FC PR: unbeaten in their last five league games (D D W W W). Floresta EC CE: no win in their last three league games (D D L W L).
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).