SLSPL

20:15Fri 9 Oct

SSM

SP La Fiorita vs SS Murata

CLASS D

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THE READ

Match details. Campionato Sammarinese, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is Fri 9 Oct, 20:15 Lagos time.

What's at stake. SP La Fiorita are 7th on 6 points after 4 games, level on points with Domagnano, 1 point clear of Libertas. A win would take them above Domagnano. SS Murata are 12th on 3 points after 4 games, level on points with Cailungo, level on points with San Giovanni. A win would take them above Cailungo.

Form. SP La Fiorita have won one, drawn three and lost none of their last four league games, 1.5 points a game. Their last four in the league, newest first: W D D D. SS Murata have won one, drawn none and lost eight of their last nine league games, 0.3 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L L W L L.

The numbers. SP La Fiorita score one and concede 0.8 a game over their last four, with one clean sheet. SP La Fiorita average 8.0 shots (2.8 on target), 2.7 corners and 2.3 cards a game. SS Murata score 1.4 and concede 3.4 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal.

Head to head. In the last ten meetings SP La Fiorita have won eight, drawn none and lost two. Seven of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, SP La Fiorita won three and SS Murata won one. The last time they met, on 24 Jan 2026, it finished SP La Fiorita 2-0 SS Murata.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 94% against the records' 64%.

The read. No firm call: SP La Fiorita are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make SP La Fiorita the likelier winners; SP La Fiorita are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour SP La Fiorita; the meetings favour SP La Fiorita. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 58%. Seven of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: SP La Fiorita 2-1 SS Murata (10% chance).

The agreed story. No side to back (SP La Fiorita the favourite), an open game.

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

SP La Fiorita or Over 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

SPL 3 of 6 (50%) · SSM 5 of 5 (100%)56.3%

SP La Fiorita: the bet landed in 3 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · SS Murata: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 75% · H2H 6 of 6 · SP La Fiorita: only games against sides at SS Murata's level · SS Murata: only games against sides at SP La Fiorita's level

GOALS

Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

SPL 5 of 6 (83%) · SSM 5 of 5 (100%)93%

SP La Fiorita: over 0.5 goals in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · SS Murata: over 0.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 92% · H2H 6 of 6 · SP La Fiorita: only games against sides at SS Murata's level · SS Murata: only games against sides at SP La Fiorita's level

Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

SPL 4 of 6 (67%) · SSM 5 of 5 (100%)81.9%

SP La Fiorita: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · SS Murata: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 83% · H2H 6 of 6 · SP La Fiorita: only games against sides at SS Murata's level · SS Murata: only games against sides at SP La Fiorita's level

SP LA FIORITA GOALS

SP La Fiorita Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

SPL 5 of 6 (83%) · SSM 5 of 5 (100%)83%

SP La Fiorita scored in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · SS Murata conceded in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 92% · H2H 6 of 6 · SP La Fiorita: only games against sides at SS Murata's level · SS Murata: only games against sides at SP La Fiorita's level

Left off the list: Under 4.5 Goals (SP La Fiorita are a clear winner - no Unders); SP La Fiorita Over 1.5 Goals (SP La Fiorita's own games don't back it (1 of 6)); Under 5.5 Goals (SP La Fiorita are a clear winner - no Unders)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 2–1 9.8%

SP La Fiorita goals →

SS Murata goals ↓

0-07%

1-011%

2-010%

3-06%

4-03%

5-00.9%

0-16%

1-112%

2-110%

3-16%

4-13%

5-10.9%

0-23%

1-25%

2-25%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.4%

0-31.0%

1-32%

2-32%

3-30.9%

4-30.4%

5-30.1%

0-40.2%

1-40.4%

2-40.4%

3-40.2%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.0%

1-50.1%

2-50.1%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

SP LA FIORITAWLWLLDDDDW1.30 PPG

SS MURATALLLLLLWLLL0.30 PPG

THE NUMBERS

SP LA FIORITA HOMExSS MURATA AWAY

1.10SCORED A GAME0.801.10CONCEDED A GAME3.1020%CLEAN SHEETS0%25%FAILED TO SCORE75%

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

SP LA FIORITA TO SCORE

–

136 OF 144

PRICE NOT KEPT

The tips call a clear winner in a league averaging 2.9+ goals a game.

SP LA FIORITA OR DRAW (1UP)

–

137 OF 146

PRICE NOT KEPT

The tips call a clear winner and every tip has the favourite winning by 2+.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

90%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

38%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

81%

NO · 85/90

SP LA FIORITA OR DRAW

64%

NO · 80/85

SS MURATA OR DRAW

66%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (4 and 4 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 10

SP LA FIORITA 8 · 80%DRAW 0SS MURATA 2 · 20%

5 of 10BOTH TEAMS SCORED

9 of 10OVER 1.5 GOALS

7 of 10OVER 2.5 GOALS

2 of 10OVER 3.5 GOALS

2023-10-08SP La Fiorita 2 – 1 SS Murata

2024-02-10SP La Fiorita 2 – 1 SS Murata

2024-05-04SP La Fiorita 1 – 3 SS Murata

2024-05-11SP La Fiorita 1 – 0 SS Murata

2025-01-11SP La Fiorita 3 – 0 SS Murata

2025-04-27SP La Fiorita 2 – 0 SS Murata

2025-09-21SP La Fiorita 3 – 1 SS Murata

2025-11-26SP La Fiorita 3 – 0 SS Murata

TRENDS

SP La Fiorita have scored in 70% of their games.

SS Murata have scored in 40% of their games.

SP La Fiorita kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

SS Murata kept a clean sheet in 0% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetshead to headleague tablecornerscards