Freiburg vs FK Jablonec
Match details. De1, League Stage - 1. Kick-off is Thu 15 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau. The referee is E. Malcevs.
What's at stake. Freiburg are 7th on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with St. Truiden, level on points with Atalanta. A win would take them above St. Truiden. FK Jablonec are 4th on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with Monaco, level on points with Gent. A win would take them above Monaco.
Form. Freiburg have won eight, drawn one and lost one of their last ten, 2.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W W. In this competition Freiburg have gone W W. FK Jablonec have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D L W.
The numbers. Freiburg score 3.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last six at home, with one clean sheet. Freiburg average 19.8 shots (7.6 on target), 6.5 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 56% of the ball. FK Jablonec score 0.5 and concede one a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. FK Jablonec average 12.3 shots (4.9 on target), 5.0 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 44% of the ball.
The case against. FK Jablonec's record still gives them 25% to win.
The read. Freiburg to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Freiburg the likelier winners; Freiburg are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Freiburg. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 52%.
The bets. Best bet: Freiburg to win at 1.21, 77% on the records (Freiburg won 5 of 6 at home; FK Jablonec lost 3 of 6 away). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.20. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: Freiburg 3-0 FK Jablonec (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).