Brighton vs FK Kauno Zalgiris
Match details. Lt1, League Stage - 1. Kick-off is Thu 15 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at American Express Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex. The referee is M. Redder.
What's at stake. Brighton are 2nd on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with Mjallby AIF, level on points with Monaco. A win would take them above Mjallby AIF. FK Kauno Zalgiris are 32nd on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with Inter Club d'Escaldes, level on points with Universitatea Craiova. A win would take them above Inter Club d'Escaldes.
Form. Brighton have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W D. In this competition Brighton have gone W D. FK Kauno Zalgiris have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W W.
The numbers. Brighton score 2.4 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Brighton average 18.4 shots (5.8 on target), 5.2 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 62% of the ball. FK Kauno Zalgiris score 1.3 and concede 0.9 a game in their last seven away, with five clean sheets and two games without a goal. FK Kauno Zalgiris average 10.8 shots (5.4 on target), 6.0 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 54% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 96% against the records' 40%.
The read. No firm call: Brighton are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Brighton the likelier winners; Brighton are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Brighton 3-0 FK Kauno Zalgiris (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).