Atalanta vs Pafos FC

Match details. UEFA Conference League, League Stage - 1. Kick-off is Thu 15 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo. The referee is A. Ladeback.

What's at stake. Atalanta are 8th on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with SC Freiburg, level on points with Ajax. A win would take them above SC Freiburg. Pafos FC are 15th on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with HNK Hajduk Split, level on points with Aarhus. A win would take them above HNK Hajduk Split.

Form. Atalanta have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L L W. In this competition Atalanta have gone W D. Pafos FC have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W D W. In this competition Pafos FC have gone D.

The numbers. Atalanta score 1.2 and concede 0.8 a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Atalanta average 13.0 shots (4.6 on target), 3.9 corners and 1.1 cards a game, with 49% of the ball. Pafos FC score 1.3 and concede 0.7 a game in their last seven away, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Pafos FC average 15.8 shots (6.2 on target), 3.0 corners and 2.9 cards a game.

Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their xG points to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 38%.

The case against. Pafos FC's record still gives them 44% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 38%.

The read. Atalanta to win. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their xG points to an open game.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Pafos FC Under 1.5 goals (the signs point different ways); Under 5.5 Goals (Atalanta are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Atalanta 2-1 Pafos FC (8% chance).