Marseille vs Olympiacos
Match details. UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 2. Kick-off is Thu 15 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Orange Vélodrome, Marseille. The referee is Michael Oliver.
What's at stake. Marseille are 32nd on 0 points after 1 game, level on points with Celje, level on points with Ararat-Armenia. A win would take them above Celje. Olympiacos are 13th on 3 points after 1 game, level on points with Torreense, level on points with Red Bull Salzburg. A win would take them above Torreense.
Team news. Marseille are without D. Cornelius (hip injury), P. Hojbjerg (muscle injury), D. Cornelius (hip injury), P. Hojbjerg (muscle injury). Olympiacos are without Clayton (off the roster), A. El Kaabi (broken leg), M. Mouandilmadji (off the roster), B. Popovic (off the roster), J. Roca (off the roster), L. Scipioni (off the roster).
Form. Marseille have won four, drawn none and lost six of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L L L. In this competition Marseille have gone L. Olympiacos have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L W. In this competition Olympiacos have gone W.
The numbers. Marseille score 1.4 and concede 1.6 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. Marseille average 14.0 shots (5.0 on target), 4.1 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 54% of the ball. Olympiacos score 1.4 and concede 0.5 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets and two games without a goal. Olympiacos average 18.0 shots (4.3 on target), 7.8 corners and 2.7 cards a game, with 58% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last four meetings Marseille have won two, drawn none and lost two. One of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 1 Dec 2020, it finished Marseille 2-1 Olympiacos: Marseille had 12 shots to 7, 53% of the ball, four yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Marseille the likelier winners, but Olympiacos are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Olympiacos.
The case against. Olympiacos's record still gives them 64% to win.
The read. Marseille or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Marseille the likelier winners; Olympiacos are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Olympiacos. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 43%. Three of the last four meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.44, 75% on the records (Marseille: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 10; Olympiacos: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 10). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.17. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 3.5 Cards (the signs point different ways); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Marseille 1-1 Olympiacos (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).