INTERNATIONAL CLUBS - UEFA CONFERENCE LEAGUE

KEKFE

17:45Thu 15 Oct

FCM

KF Egnatia Rrogozhine vs FC Midtjylland

CLASS A

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. Dk1, League Stage - 1. Kick-off is Thu 15 Oct, 17:45 Lagos time. It is played at Arena Egnatia, Rrogozhinë. The referee is S. Ebner.

What's at stake. KF Egnatia Rrogozhine are 30th on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with Kairat Almaty, level on points with Inter Club d'Escaldes. A win would take them above Kairat Almaty. FC Midtjylland are 18th on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with FC Copenhagen, level on points with FC Nordsjaelland. A win would take them above FC Copenhagen.

Form. KF Egnatia Rrogozhine have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W W. FC Midtjylland have won seven, drawn three and lost none of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W D.

The numbers. KF Egnatia Rrogozhine score 2.5 and concede one a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets. KF Egnatia Rrogozhine average 14.4 shots (5.2 on target), 5.0 corners and 2.7 cards a game, with 49% of the ball. FC Midtjylland score three and concede 0.6 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. FC Midtjylland average 12.9 shots (5.4 on target), 5.6 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 60% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 64% against the records' 35%.

The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their xG points to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 63%.

The read. No firm call: FC Midtjylland are the better side, but not at this price. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make FC Midtjylland the likelier winners; FC Midtjylland are the stronger side on form and the table.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: KF Egnatia Rrogozhine 1-1 FC Midtjylland (10% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

HALVES

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.36

KFE 5 of 6 (83%) · FCM 5 of 5 (100%)87.8%

KF Egnatia Rrogozhine: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · FC Midtjylland: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 80% · on half-time scores

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.22

KFE 4 of 6 (67%) · FCM 5 of 5 (100%)82.2%

KF Egnatia Rrogozhine: the bet landed in 4 of 6 at home · FC Midtjylland: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 80% · on half-time scores

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 10.2%

KF Egnatia Rrogozhine goals →

FC Midtjylland goals ↓

0-04%

1-05%

2-04%

3-02%

4-00.8%

5-00.2%

0-16%

1-110%

2-17%

3-14%

4-11%

5-10.4%

0-26%

1-29%

2-27%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.4%

0-34%

1-36%

2-34%

3-32%

4-30.8%

5-30.2%

0-42%

1-43%

2-42%

3-41.0%

4-40.4%

5-40.1%

0-50.6%

1-51.0%

2-50.7%

3-50.4%

4-50.1%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

KF EGNATIA RROGOZHINEDLWDWWWLWW2.00 PPG

FC MIDTJYLLANDWWWDWDWWDW2.40 PPG

THE NUMBERS

KF EGNATIA RROGOZHINE HOMExFC MIDTJYLLAND AWAY

2.20SCORED A GAME2.601.20CONCEDED A GAME0.7025%CLEAN SHEETS31%0%FAILED TO SCORE0%5.00CORNERS A GAME5.602.67CARDS A GAME1.60

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

2.50POINTS A GAME2.11+1.33GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.89+3.0SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+2.82.4LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.26LEAGUE GAMES9

No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

96%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

65%

OKAY · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

97%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

KF EGNATIA RROGOZHINE OR DRAW

83%

OKAY · 80/85

FC MIDTJYLLAND OR DRAW

56%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (6 and 9 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

KF EGNATIA RROGOZHINExFC MIDTJYLLAND

5GAMES52.00SCORED A GAME2.201.00CONCEDED A GAME1.003.0GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.2100%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%80%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%80%BOTH SCORE80%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES3.6–CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES9.0

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

KF Egnatia Rrogozhine have scored in 90% of their games.

FC Midtjylland have scored in 100% of their games.

KF Egnatia Rrogozhine kept a clean sheet in 25% of their games.

FC Midtjylland kept a clean sheet in 31% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards