INTERNATIONAL CLUBS - UEFA CONFERENCE LEAGUE

CUCSU

17:45Thu 15 Oct

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CS Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe

CLASS A

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THE READ

Match details. UEFA Conference League, League Stage - 1. Kick-off is Thu 15 Oct, 17:45 Lagos time. It is played at Complex Sportiv Craiova. The referee is D. Smajc.

What's at stake. CS Universitatea Craiova are 33rd on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with Kauno Žalgiris, level on points with FC Iberia 1999. A win would take them above Kauno Žalgiris. Getafe are 11th on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with Twente, level on points with KuPS. A win would take them above Twente.

Form. CS Universitatea Craiova have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W. Getafe have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L D D. In this competition Getafe have gone L W.

The numbers. CS Universitatea Craiova score 1.9 and concede 0.6 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. CS Universitatea Craiova average 20.7 shots (8.0 on target), 5.6 corners and 1.7 cards a game, with 56% of the ball. Getafe score 0.2 and concede two a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and four games without a goal. Getafe average 11.1 shots (2.8 on target), 4.2 corners and 4.2 cards a game, with 36% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 30% against the records' 72%. On goals, their xG points to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 44%.

The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their xG points to an open game.

The read. No firm call: CS Universitatea Craiova are the better side, but not at this price. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make CS Universitatea Craiova the likelier winners; CS Universitatea Craiova are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CS Universitatea Craiova. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 44%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 3.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Under 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: CS Universitatea Craiova 2-0 Getafe (12% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

CS Universitatea Craiova or Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.20

CSU 10 of 10 (100%) · GET 5 of 5 (100%)92.1%

CS Universitatea Craiova: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Getafe: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 95% · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

Under 1.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.34

CSU 7 of 10 (70%) · GET 4 of 5 (80%)75.9%

CS Universitatea Craiova: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Getafe: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 76% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.39

CSU 9 of 10 (90%) · GET 3 of 5 (60%)75.4%

CS Universitatea Craiova: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Getafe: the bet landed in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 83% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

CARDS

Over 3.5 CardsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

CSU 4 of 7 (57%) · GET 8 of 8 (100%)78.6%

CS Universitatea Craiova's games: over 3.5 cards in 4 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Getafe's games: over 3.5 cards in 8 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 79% · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Under 3.5 Goals (the numbers (60%) and the records (83%) are 24 points apart, and nothing settles it); Under 2.5 Goals (the numbers (37%) and the records (56%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 2–0 11.7%

CS Universitatea… goals →

Getafe goals ↓

0-04%

1-09%

2-012%

3-010%

4-06%

5-03%

0-13%

1-18%

2-19%

3-18%

4-15%

5-12%

0-21%

1-23%

2-24%

3-23%

4-22%

5-20.9%

0-30.3%

1-30.8%

2-31.0%

3-30.8%

4-30.5%

5-30.2%

0-40.1%

1-40.2%

2-40.2%

3-40.2%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.0%

1-50.0%

2-50.0%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

CS UNIVERSITATEA CRAIOVADDWLDWWWWW2.10 PPG

GETAFELWWLLDDLWL1.10 PPG

THE NUMBERS

CS UNIVERSITATEA CRAIOVA HOMExGETAFE AWAY

1.90SCORED A GAME0.800.60CONCEDED A GAME1.3040%CLEAN SHEETS20%9%FAILED TO SCORE50%5.57CORNERS A GAME4.251.71CARDS A GAME4.252.56xG0.680.77xG AGAINST1.33

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

2.11POINTS A GAME1.00+1.22GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME-0.75+6.6SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST-3.42.6LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.09LEAGUE GAMES8

CS Universitatea Craiova: the quality side - more shots than it allows, better form (last 5).

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

52%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

34%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

95%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

CS UNIVERSITATEA CRAIOVA OR DRAW

88%

VERY GOOD · 80/85

GETAFE OR DRAW

15%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (9 and 8 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

CS UNIVERSITATEA CRAIOVAxGETAFE

5GAMES52.00SCORED A GAME0.600.40CONCEDED A GAME1.202.4GOALS IN THEIR GAMES1.860%OVER 1.5 GOALS60%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS20%40%BOTH SCORE40%4.0CARDS IN THEIR GAMES5.29.2CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES10.0

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

CS Universitatea Craiova have scored in 90% of their games.

Getafe have scored in 70% of their games.

CS Universitatea Craiova kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

Getafe kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards