Sparta Prague vs Lillestroem SK
Match details. Sparta Prague host Lillestroem SK in the UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 2 on Thu 15 Oct. Kick-off is at 17:45 Lagos time at Stadion Letná in Prague. Martin Matosa is the referee for this match.
What's at stake. Sparta Prague sit 3rd on 3 points after 1 game, level with Crystal Palace and Beşiktaş. A win would take them above Crystal Palace. Lillestroem SK are 24th on 0 points after 1 game, level with Anderlecht and Celta Vigo, and a win moves them above Anderlecht.
Team news. Sparta Prague are without main creator A. Karabec due to an ankle injury. M. Andersen, E. Cobbaut, J. Martinec, L. Mbe Soh and O. Penxa are also out. Lillestroem SK travel without E. B. Garnas, C. Jebara and L. Alperud.
Form. Sparta Prague are in strong form, winning seven, drawing none and losing three of their last ten for 2.1 points a game. They have won five in a row and won their only match in this competition. Lillestroem SK have four wins, three draws and three losses from ten, picking up 1.5 points a game. In this competition, they have gone L D.
The numbers. Sparta Prague score 2.5 and concede one a game over their last ten, keeping five clean sheets. They average 18.7 shots, 6.9 on target, 8.0 corners and 1.3 cards with 62% possession. Lillestroem SK score 1.8 and concede one per game in their last six away. They average 14.3 shots, 4.7 on target, 6.7 corners and 1.2 cards with 50% possession.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree on this one. The odds board makes it 74% against the records' 46%.
The read. No firm call: Sparta Prague are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Sparta Prague the likelier winners, they are stronger on form and the table, and both teams' records favour them. Their xG points to an open game and their records put over 2.5 goals at 74%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.11, 93% on the records (Sparta Prague: over 1.5 goals in 10 of 10; Lillestroem SK: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 6 away). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.14. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (Sparta Prague are a clear winner, no Unders); Lillestroem SK Under 1.5 goals (Lillestroem SK's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); Under 5.5 Goals (Sparta Prague are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Sparta Prague 2-1 Lillestroem SK (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).