INTERNATIONAL CLUBS - UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE

SALSAL

17:45Thu 15 Oct

ACM

Salzburg vs AC Milan

CLASS A

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THE READ

Match details. UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 2. Kick-off is Thu 15 Oct, 17:45 Lagos time. It is played at Red Bull Arena, Salzburg. The referee is Horatiu Fesnic.

What's at stake. Salzburg are 14th on 3 points after 1 game, level on points with Olympiakos Piraeus, level on points with Sunderland. A win would take them above Olympiakos Piraeus. AC Milan are 30th on 0 points after 1 game, level on points with 1899 Hoffenheim, level on points with Celje. A win would take them above 1899 Hoffenheim.

Team news. Salzburg are without E. Aguilar (muscle injury), A. Chase (off the roster), F. Matijasevic (off the roster), J. Moser (off the roster), J. Omoregie (achilles tendon injury), N. Veratschnig (knee injury). N. Veratschnig is their centre-back. AC Milan are without M. Gabbia (thigh injury), A. Saelemaekers (ankle injury), P. Terracciano (inactive), S. Chukwueze (inactive), M. Gabbia (thigh injury), A. Saelemaekers (ankle injury). S. Chukwueze is their main creator.

Form. Salzburg have won eight, drawn two and lost none of their last ten, 2.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W D W. AC Milan have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L D D. In this competition AC Milan have gone L.

The numbers. Salzburg score 2.4 and concede 0.3 a game over their last ten, with seven clean sheets. Salzburg average 13.9 shots (6.5 on target), 5.2 corners and 1.1 cards a game, with 63% of the ball. AC Milan score 1.6 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. AC Milan average 13.5 shots (4.2 on target), 4.2 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 59% of the ball.

Head to head. In the last two meetings Salzburg have won none, drawn one and lost one. One of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 2 Nov 2022, it finished Salzburg 0-4 AC Milan: Salzburg had 16 shots to 15, 51% of the ball, two yellow cards.

Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make AC Milan the likelier winners, but Salzburg are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Salzburg. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%.

The read. No side to back. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side.

The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: Salzburg 1-1 AC Milan (13% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.10

SAL 9 of 10 (90%) · ACM 5 of 5 (100%)96.2%

Salzburg: under 5.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · AC Milan: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 95%

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.24

SAL 8 of 10 (80%) · ACM 5 of 5 (100%)90.7%

Salzburg: under 4.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · AC Milan: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 85%

Over 1.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.18

SAL 7 of 10 (70%) · ACM 5 of 5 (100%)74.3%

Salzburg: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · AC Milan: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 85%

Under 3.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.60

SAL 8 of 10 (80%) · ACM 4 of 5 (80%)73.7%

Salzburg: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · AC Milan: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 80%

HALVES

Under 2.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.17

SAL 8 of 10 (80%) · ACM 5 of 5 (100%)90%

Salzburg: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · AC Milan: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 90% · on half-time scores

Under 1.5 first-half goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.63

SAL 6 of 10 (60%) · ACM 4 of 5 (80%)68.3%

Salzburg: the bet landed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · AC Milan: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 65% · on half-time scores

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 12.8%

Salzburg goals →

AC Milan goals ↓

0-08%

1-07%

2-04%

3-01%

4-00.4%

5-00.1%

0-111%

1-113%

2-16%

3-12%

4-10.6%

5-10.1%

0-29%

1-29%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.5%

5-20.1%

0-35%

1-35%

2-33%

3-30.9%

4-30.2%

5-30.0%

0-42%

1-42%

2-41%

3-40.4%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.6%

1-50.6%

2-50.3%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).

FORM · LAST 10

SALZBURGWWWWWWDWWD2.60 PPG

AC MILANLWLWWDDLWD1.50 PPG

THE NUMBERS

SALZBURG HOMExAC MILAN AWAY

2.40SCORED A GAME1.600.30CONCEDED A GAME1.3070%CLEAN SHEETS20%0%FAILED TO SCORE0%5.20CORNERS A GAME4.251.10CARDS A GAME1.88

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

2.25POINTS A GAME2.00+1.75GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+1.00+4.0SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+1.62.2LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.88LEAGUE GAMES6

AC Milan: the quality side - a top-five league club v a smaller league.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

90%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

47%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

91%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

SALZBURG OR DRAW

87%

VERY GOOD · 80/85

AC MILAN OR DRAW

51%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (8 and 6 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

SALZBURGxAC MILAN

5GAMES52.60SCORED A GAME1.800.60CONCEDED A GAME0.803.2GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.680%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS40%60%BOTH SCORE60%2.6CARDS IN THEIR GAMES3.810.4CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES6.6

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 2

SALZBURG 0 · 0%DRAW 1AC MILAN 1 · 50%

2022-09-06Salzburg 1 – 1 AC Milan

2022-11-02Salzburg 0 – 4 AC Milan

TEAM NEWS

SALZBURG

Out: E. Aguilar (Muscle Injury), A. Chase (Off the roster), F. Matijasevic (Off the roster), J. Moser (Off the roster), J. Omoregie (Achilles Tendon Injury), N. Veratschnig (Knee Injury)

AC MILAN

Out: M. Gabbia (Thigh Injury), A. Saelemaekers (Ankle Injury), P. Terracciano (Inactive), S. Chukwueze (Inactive), M. Gabbia (Thigh Injury), A. Saelemaekers (Ankle Injury)

TRENDS

Salzburg have scored in 90% of their games.

AC Milan have scored in 80% of their games.

Salzburg kept a clean sheet in 70% of their games.

AC Milan kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetshead to headleague tableteam newscornerscards