INTERNATIONAL CLUBS - UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE

KLKKS

17:45Thu 15 Oct

BAY

KKS Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen

CLASS A

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. De1, League Stage - 2. Kick-off is Thu 15 Oct, 17:45 Lagos time. It is played at Stadion Miejski, Poznan. The referee is Milos Milanovic.

What's at stake. KKS Lech Poznan are 35th on 0 points after 1 game, level on points with Plzen, level on points with NEC Nijmegen. A win would take them above Plzen. Bayer Leverkusen are 8th on 3 points after 1 game, level on points with Benfica, level on points with OFI. A win would take them above Benfica.

Team news. KKS Lech Poznan are without A. Douglas (ankle injury), A. Gholizadeh (knee injury), J. Moutinho (inactive), R. Murawski (red card), A. Sayyadmanesh (groin injury), R. Gumny (inactive). Bayer Leverkusen are without E. Ben Seghir (muscle injury), V. Boniface (off the roster), M. Culbreath (foot injury), G. Doue (calf injury), K. Eichhorn (illness), J. Hofmann (off the roster).

Form. KKS Lech Poznan have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L W. Bayer Leverkusen have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W D W. In this competition Bayer Leverkusen have gone W.

The numbers. KKS Lech Poznan score three and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets. KKS Lech Poznan average 15.5 shots (6.6 on target), 6.2 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 44% of the ball. Bayer Leverkusen score 2.6 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Bayer Leverkusen average 21.0 shots (7.1 on target), 7.1 corners and 1.1 cards a game, with 61% of the ball.

The case against. KKS Lech Poznan's record still gives them 52% to win.

The read. Bayer Leverkusen or the draw. A draw is live. An open game. Their goals for and against make KKS Lech Poznan the likelier winners; KKS Lech Poznan are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour KKS Lech Poznan. Their xG points to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 90%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: KKS Lech Poznan 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen (7% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

HALVES

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.13

KKS 10 of 10 (100%) · BAY 5 of 5 (100%)100%

KKS Lech Poznan: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Bayer Leverkusen: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 100% · on half-time scores

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.27

KKS 9 of 10 (90%) · BAY 5 of 5 (100%)93.3%

KKS Lech Poznan: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Bayer Leverkusen: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 90% · on half-time scores

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 2–2 6.6%

KKS Lech Poznan goals →

Bayer Leverkusen goals ↓

0-03%

1-04%

2-06%

3-05%

4-03%

5-01%

0-13%

1-18%

2-19%

3-17%

4-14%

5-12%

0-22%

1-26%

2-27%

3-25%

4-23%

5-21%

0-31%

1-33%

2-33%

3-33%

4-32%

5-30.7%

0-40.4%

1-41%

2-41%

3-41.0%

4-40.6%

5-40.3%

0-50.1%

1-50.3%

2-50.4%

3-50.3%

4-50.2%

5-50.1%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

KKS LECH POZNANWWDWWWLLWW2.20 PPG

BAYER LEVERKUSENWLDWLWDWWW2.00 PPG

THE NUMBERS

KKS LECH POZNAN HOMExBAYER LEVERKUSEN AWAY

3.00SCORED A GAME2.601.30CONCEDED A GAME1.3030%CLEAN SHEETS40%20%FAILED TO SCORE0%6.20CORNERS A GAME7.122.20CARDS A GAME1.12

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

2.50POINTS A GAME2.00+1.50GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+1.20+3.5SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+6.82.4LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.06LEAGUE GAMES5

Bayer Leverkusen: the quality side - a top-five league club v a smaller league.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

93%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

83%

VERY GOOD · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

52%

NO · 85/90

KKS LECH POZNAN OR DRAW

81%

OKAY · 80/85

BAYER LEVERKUSEN OR DRAW

35%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (6 and 5 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

KKS LECH POZNANxBAYER LEVERKUSEN

5GAMES52.60SCORED A GAME2.801.00CONCEDED A GAME1.603.6GOALS IN THEIR GAMES4.480%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%80%OVER 2.5 GOALS80%80%BOTH SCORE60%5.0CARDS IN THEIR GAMES4.09.8CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES11.4

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TEAM NEWS

KKS LECH POZNAN

Out: A. Douglas (Ankle Injury), A. Gholizadeh (Knee Injury), J. Moutinho (Inactive), R. Murawski (Red Card), A. Sayyadmanesh (Groin Injury), R. Gumny (Inactive)

BAYER LEVERKUSEN

Out: E. Ben Seghir (Muscle Injury), V. Boniface (Off the roster), M. Culbreath (Foot Injury), G. Doue (Calf Injury), K. Eichhorn (Illness), J. Hofmann (Off the roster)

TRENDS

KKS Lech Poznan have scored in 90% of their games.

Bayer Leverkusen have scored in 100% of their games.

KKS Lech Poznan kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

Bayer Leverkusen kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tableteam newscornerscards