Werder Bremen vs Paderborn
Match details. Werder Bremen host Paderborn at the Weser-Stadion in Bremen for Bundesliga Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is set for 14:30 Lagos time on Sat 17 Oct. Robert Schroder is the referee for this one.
What's at stake. Werder Bremen sit 7th on 8 points after 5 games. They are level on points with FC Augsburg and 1 point clear of FSV Mainz 05, so a win takes them above FC Augsburg. Paderborn are 15th on 4 points after 5 games, level with Union Berlin and 1 point behind Eintracht Frankfurt. A win moves them above Eintracht Frankfurt.
Team news. Werder Bremen have a few injury issues to deal with. They are without F. Agu, S. Alvero, S. Lynen, S. Musah, M. N'Diaye, and J. Njinmah. Paderborn travel without N. Awortwie-Grant, T. Gayret, M. Hoffmeier, and S. Klaas.
Form. Werder Bremen have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, averaging 1.2 points a game. Their last five form reads D W D W L. Paderborn have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, picking up 1.3 points a game. They come into this having gone L W L L D in their last five.
The numbers. Over their last ten, Werder Bremen score 1.5 and concede 1.7 a game, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. They average 10.5 shots (4.1 on target), 3.4 corners and 1.3 cards with 45% of the ball. Paderborn score 1.2 and concede one a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets. They average 13.3 shots (4.2 on target), 4.6 corners and 1.9 cards with 48% possession.
Head to head. Werder Bremen have won four of the last seven meetings, drawing one and losing two. Five of those seven went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. Werder Bremen won three of the last four. They last met on 30 Oct 2024, when Werder Bremen won 1-0 with 11 shots to 18 and 52% possession.
Where it pulls both ways. Looking at goals for and against, everything points to a tight game. Their records place over 2.5 goals at 48%. However, five of the last seven meetings went over 2.5, and that head to head record settles it for me.
The case against. There is still a case against the hosts. Paderborn's record gives them a 30% chance to win. Not everything agrees on goals, as their goals for and against point to a tight game, and their overall records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The read. Werder Bremen to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Werder Bremen the likelier winners; Werder Bremen are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Werder Bremen. Five of the last seven meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.16, 74% on the records (Werder Bremen: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 9; Paderborn: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 7). Backup: 2nd Half - Double Chance: Werder Bremen or Draw at 1.26. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Paderborn Under 1.5 goals (Werder Bremen's own games don't back it (4 of 9)); Under 4.5 Goals (Werder Bremen are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Werder Bremen are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Werder Bremen 2-1 Paderborn (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).